Value chain · CLM-1031
In plain terms
A launcher a third the size of the reference one would cost about a fifth more per kilogram to fly and need four launches a day instead of one, but would save five billion dollars up front and add only three per cent to the cost of each satellite. By 1981 everyone involved wanted it.
The claim as recorded
Boeing's Phase III analysis of a "small" HLLV - 4,000 t liftoff, 126 t payload by mass statement (120 t parametric), an 11 m square by 14 m bay - prices a flight at $4.231M in 1979 dollars at 1,500 flights a year (flight hardware $2.359M, propellant $0.617M, site manpower $0.612M, ground operations $0.35M, tooling $0.18M, program support $0.113M), which is $33.6 per gross kg or $39.2 per net kg against $27.4 and $31.1 for the reference vehicle at the same dollar year; it needs 1,283 to 1,658 launches a year, 3.5 to 4.5 a day, deposits 1.71 times the effluent per week, saves $5,000.6M nonrecurring (transport DDT&E -3,075, facilities -3,049, Shuttle modifications -3,204, offset by fleet +790 and factory +1,619, which sum to -6,919; the table reaches -5,000.6 only with the rows that itemisation omits: satellite design changes +230, cargo logistics +250.1, and smaller crew modules DDT&E -2,521 with investment +3,925 + 34.4) and costs $887M a year more to run, "about 440 millions per SPS, or roughly 3% increase per SPS"; Boeing recommends it as the reference, Battelle's review agrees in principle, and NASA's 1981 volume records the consensus for 100,000 to 150,000 kg.
Evidence behind this: T3-contractor Phase III analysis; the text layer is letter-for-digit corrupted and every figure is from a render.
Scope and limits
Boeing's conclusions page prints "125 tonnes" and a "22 x 11 meters cross-section 15 meters long" bay against the body's 126 t and 11 x 11 x 14 m; the text layer is letter-for-digit corrupted throughout and every figure here is from a render. The 3 per cent is on a per-satellite base the document does not state. Boeing notes its own tooling figure for the large HLLV was probably underestimated, which flatters the small vehicle's delta.
What it assumes
1977 to 1979 at 1.15 for the reference vehicle.
Where it comes from
PDF p.38 / 32, render read: "ASCENT PAYLOAD 126,260 ... VEHICLE AT LIFTOFF 4,034,285" kg. Table 2.3-1 (PDF 43 / 37), render read: year 5 "1283 3.52", year 33 "1658 4.54" launches, "Based on 108 MT net payload per launch (120 MT payload capability discounted 10% to allow for packaging)". Table 2.5-2 (PDF 93 / 87), render read: "COST IN MILLIONS (79$) PROGRAM SUPPORT .113 FLIGHT HARDWARE 2.359 GROUND SYSTEM & OPS 0.35 TOOLING SYSTEMS 0.18 PROPELLANT 0.617 SITE MANPOWER 0.612 4.231". Table 2.5-3 (PDF 94 / 88), render read: nonrecurring "TOTAL -5000.6", recurring "TOTAL = 887", "TOOLING UNDERESTIMATED FOR LARGE HLLV?". PDF p.95 / 89, render read: "The net recurring result is 887 millions per year, about 440 millions per SPS, or roughly 3% increase per SPS ... it is recommended that the small HLLV be adopted as an SPS reference system." PDF p.89 / 83: "The small HLLV will deposit 1.71 times as much effluent into the atmosphere per week as the large HLLV." SRC-532 PDF p.12 / 1-6: "it is likely that smaller HLLV designs can reduce front-end costs with increases in recurring use costs but only modest increases in total program costs." Per-kg comparison is division of the stated figures, with the reference at $10.1M x 1.15.
Basis: tonnes; launches per year; USD 1979 millions
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1031
CLM-1031, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-06.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-499
- CLM-1032If the ferry's solar cells could not be repaired in flight it would wear out in three trips and the cost per kilogram would rise by about a...
- Also from SRC-532
- CLM-1024The 1979 government estimate put a heavy-lift flight at about ten million dollars of the day, most of it people refurbishing the vehicle...CLM-1026The electric ferry takes half a year to climb to geostationary orbit but burns about an eighth of a kilogram of argon for every kilogram it...CLM-1027Getting a crew from low orbit up to the construction site took half a day and a stage the size of a small airliner, refuelled at the top...CLM-1028Building the rockets was priced at seventeen billion 1977 dollars and running them at about 2.8 billion per satellite, or roughly sixty...CLM-1029In 1980 the programme's own accounting had rockets at roughly one dollar in four of a satellite's cost and nearly one in two of the money...CLM-1030The independent 1980 cost review said the government's rocket numbers were fair for the stage the programme was at, then added spare...CLM-1033At the higher of NASA's two peak figures, the launches would have needed about 6 per cent of US daily hydrogen output and 30 per cent of...CLM-1034The programme's transportation workshop said the schedule was probably unrealistic, and the programme's cost reviewer said the launcher...
- Also from SRC-555
- CLM-1023The programme's last word on its rockets describes a launcher of about 11,000 tonnes at liftoff flying about once a day, gives fleet sizes...CLM-1025In 1980 the people building the case set themselves a goal of thirty dollars a kilogram to low orbit, hoped for fifteen later, and said in...CLM-1026The electric ferry takes half a year to climb to geostationary orbit but burns about an eighth of a kilogram of argon for every kilogram it...CLM-1027Getting a crew from low orbit up to the construction site took half a day and a stage the size of a small airliner, refuelled at the top...CLM-1029In 1980 the programme's own accounting had rockets at roughly one dollar in four of a satellite's cost and nearly one in two of the money...CLM-1033At the higher of NASA's two peak figures, the launches would have needed about 6 per cent of US daily hydrogen output and 30 per cent of...CLM-1034The programme's transportation workshop said the schedule was probably unrealistic, and the programme's cost reviewer said the launcher...