Value chain · CLM-1025
In plain terms
In 1980 the people building the case set themselves a goal of thirty dollars a kilogram to low orbit, hoped for fifteen later, and said in the same breath that the programme's schedule could not be met.
The claim as recorded
The January 1980 SPS Space Transportation Workshop, about 60 participants from NASA, the contractors and universities, "decided that ... it was proper to target the average cost of gross cargo payloads into LEO at $30 (1979)/kg for construction of the initial SPS", with a further goal of "$15 (1979)/kg for all operational payloads" for 30 to 60 satellites requiring "advanced, long-lived vehicles ... probably utilizing offshore equatorial launch sites", and concluded that "the timing of the present SPS program is clearly unrealistic with respect to space transportation"; Boeing's own 1970s progression chart in the same appendix carries "$33/KG" for a 230-ton HLLV and "$20/KG" for the 400-ton vehicles.
Evidence behind this: T3-workshop proceedings; a target, not an estimate.
Scope and limits
A workshop target, stated as a decision about what to aim at, not an estimate; the JSC estimate it rests on is $27.4 per gross kg in 1979 dollars (CLM-1024), so the target restates the reference. "Gross cargo payloads" is the 424 t basis. The Workshop report says of itself that "none of these tasks could be fully dispatched" (PDF 123 / iii).
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
PDF p.138 / xviii, render read: "The workshop decided that, although rather advanced technology and well-developed operational management would be required, it was proper to target the average cost of gross cargo payloads into LEO at $30 (1979)/kg for construction of the initial SPS. The further cost goal for repetitive construction of 30 to 60 SPS would need to be reduced to $15 (1979)/kg for all operational payloads for ESLEO". PDF p.248 / V-1: "an evolutionary series of heavy-lift and personnnel-launch vehicles with chemical rocket propulsion can be targeted realistically to move heavy masses into LEO for $30(1979)/kg by the year 2000. More advanced propulsion technology and vehicles may make $15(1979)kg a goal in the foreseeable future"; "Whereas the timing of the present SPS program is clearly unrealistic with respect to space transportation, time is available to plan a proper program". Figure 2 (PDF 144), render read: "230-TON HLLV ... $33/KG" and "400-TON HLLV'S $20/KG"; the $20 is absent from the text layer.
Basis: USD 1979 per kg to LEO
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1025
CLM-1025, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-01.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-555
- CLM-1023The programme's last word on its rockets describes a launcher of about 11,000 tonnes at liftoff flying about once a day, gives fleet sizes...CLM-1026The electric ferry takes half a year to climb to geostationary orbit but burns about an eighth of a kilogram of argon for every kilogram it...CLM-1027Getting a crew from low orbit up to the construction site took half a day and a stage the size of a small airliner, refuelled at the top...CLM-1029In 1980 the programme's own accounting had rockets at roughly one dollar in four of a satellite's cost and nearly one in two of the money...CLM-1031A launcher a third the size of the reference one would cost about a fifth more per kilogram to fly and need four launches a day instead of...CLM-1033At the higher of NASA's two peak figures, the launches would have needed about 6 per cent of US daily hydrogen output and 30 per cent of...CLM-1034The programme's transportation workshop said the schedule was probably unrealistic, and the programme's cost reviewer said the launcher...