Value chain · CLM-1024
In plain terms
The 1979 government estimate put a heavy-lift flight at about ten million dollars of the day, most of it people refurbishing the vehicle, which works out at about thirty 1979 dollars for every kilogram put into low orbit. That is the number the programme's later cost goal was built on.
The claim as recorded
The JSC cost data book of November 1979, the programme's only stated transportation cost basis, prices a reference HLLV flight at $10.1M in 1977 dollars ("multiply by 1.15" for 1979): hardware $1,980K as $595M per vehicle over 300 flights, propellant $1,524K, replenishment and refurbishment $3,594K, ground operations $628K, tooling $235K and manpower $2,138K, of which Battelle computes 62.9 per cent as manpower and 15.2 per cent as fuel; at the stated net payload of 374 t that is $27.0 per kg to LEO in 1977 dollars ($31.1 in 1979), and at the 424 t gross payload $23.8 ($27.4).
Evidence behind this: T3, the JSC cost data book of November 1979 as reproduced in the Battelle review; a parametric estimate from a proprietary model.
Scope and limits
A parametric estimate from Boeing's proprietary cost model, whose relationships Battelle "request for information in this area was denied" (PDF 10 / 1-4); it assumes 100 per cent reliability and no reserve vehicles. The propellant sub-table transposes the RP-1 and CH4 masses against the vehicle description on B-16, so its line prices cannot be used as printed, though the $10.1M total sums. Launch facilities are excluded ("estimated as part of the ground systems cost").
What it assumes
That the 374 t net payload (JSC) rather than 424 t gross is the delivered mass; Battelle uses 360 t elsewhere (PDF 40 / 2-6).
Where it comes from
PDF p.127 / B-19, render read: "HARDWARE: $595M PER VEHICLE / 300 FLIGHTS PER VEHICLE = $1,980K ... GROUND OPERATIONS 628K TOOLING 235K MANPOWER 2,138K TOTAL COST PER FLIGHT $10.1M". PDF p.124 / B-16: "The HLLV has a gross payload of 424 MT and a net payload of 374 MT. The vehicle has an inert weight of 1413 MT and has an estimated life of 300 missions." PDF p.111 / B-3: "All costs were computed in 1977 dollars. To adjust the estimates to current year dollars (1979), multiply by 1.15." PDF p.21 / 1-15: "Vehicle Wear out (over 300 flights) 19.6% Other capital costs (Tooling) 2.3% Fuel 15.2% Replenishment/Refurbishment and other Manpower 62.9%". Per-kg figures are division of the stated figures and are not in the source.
Basis: USD 1977 per flight; USD per kg by division
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1024
CLM-1024, Energy Aperture, as of 1979-11.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-532
- CLM-1026The electric ferry takes half a year to climb to geostationary orbit but burns about an eighth of a kilogram of argon for every kilogram it...CLM-1027Getting a crew from low orbit up to the construction site took half a day and a stage the size of a small airliner, refuelled at the top...CLM-1028Building the rockets was priced at seventeen billion 1977 dollars and running them at about 2.8 billion per satellite, or roughly sixty...CLM-1029In 1980 the programme's own accounting had rockets at roughly one dollar in four of a satellite's cost and nearly one in two of the money...CLM-1030The independent 1980 cost review said the government's rocket numbers were fair for the stage the programme was at, then added spare...CLM-1031A launcher a third the size of the reference one would cost about a fifth more per kilogram to fly and need four launches a day instead of...CLM-1033At the higher of NASA's two peak figures, the launches would have needed about 6 per cent of US daily hydrogen output and 30 per cent of...CLM-1034The programme's transportation workshop said the schedule was probably unrealistic, and the programme's cost reviewer said the launcher...