Value chain · CLM-0282
In plain terms
A 2022 ESA-commissioned study modelled that, from 2022 to 2070, space solar power for Europe could deliver a net economic benefit of about 183 billion euros, counting avoided costs of building, fuelling and running power plants on the ground, avoided carbon emissions and other benefits. It also modelled that private investors would not fund the first satellite alone unless the government paid for a large share of development: roughly 58 percent if investors need a 20 percent return, or roughly 30 percent if they need a lower 15 percent return.
The claim as recorded
Central-case modelled net present value of European SBSP net benefits is +EUR182.6bn (2022-2070, 3% social discount rate; sensitivity range EUR148.9bn to EUR261.8bn), but the modelled first-of-a-kind system is not privately financeable at a 20% investor hurdle rate without an estimated public grant covering approximately 58% of development costs (approximately EUR5,991M public of approximately EUR10,175M total across four development phases, p50 values); at a lower 15% hurdle rate the required public share falls to approximately 30% (approximately EUR3,092M of the same total).
Scope and limits
Commissioned by ESA. This is a modelled social cost-benefit case built on a single reference architecture and a single counterfactual (Europe reaching Net Zero without SBSP), not a market forecast or a funded commitment. The EUR182.6bn figure depends heavily on how the study team chose to monetise benefits, in particular the social cost of carbon. The public/private funding split is a further modelled inference from the same cost model, not a separate empirical study of investor appetite.
What it assumes
3% social discount rate for the NPV/cost-benefit figure; separate 20%/15% investor hurdle rates for the private-finance and strike-price analysis; 1.44 GW CASSIOPeiA FOAK system; "demand responsive" base-case satellite ramp-up scenario (1 satellite in orbit by 2040, rising to 54 by 2050 and 125 by 2070); launch-cost and other technical inputs as in CLM-0280 and CLM-0281; monetised benefits include avoided terrestrial capex/opex/fuel costs, avoided CO2 emissions at an assumed social cost of carbon, R&D spillovers, and the opportunity cost of land.
Where it comes from
"the central estimate of net benefits of SBSP in Net Present Value terms amount to EUR182.6 bn" (p.41, Table 3-11); "it becomes optimal to finance approximately 58 percent of the costs through this mechanism" (p.54); Table 3-15: Public Funding Contribution total EUR5,991M, Private Finance Contribution total EUR4,184M at 20% hurdle rate (p.55); Table 3-16: 30% public share, approximately EUR3,092M public of approximately EUR10,175M total, at 15% hurdle rate (p.55)
Basis: EUR2022
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-039 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0282
CLM-0282, Energy Aperture, as of 2022-07.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-078
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