Value chain · CLM-0280
In plain terms
A 2022 ESA-commissioned study modelled that the first European space solar power satellite could produce electricity at a cost of 106 to 206 euros per megawatt-hour. It modelled that this could fall to about 88 to 156 euros per megawatt-hour once ten similar satellites had been built.
The claim as recorded
Modelled LCOE for a 1.44 GW CASSIOPeiA-architecture first-of-a-kind (FOAK) European SBSP system is EUR106-206/MWh (p10-p90, 20% hurdle rate, 2022 prices); a modelled 10th-of-a-kind (NOAK) unit falls to EUR88.5 (p50) to EUR155.5 (p90) /MWh.
Scope and limits
Commissioned by ESA. CASSIOPeiA is one specific, patent-protected architecture (International Electric Company / Ian Cash) at an early concept-design stage, not a generic SBSP cost. The figures are a probabilistic model output, not a measured or contracted cost. Co-author Sam White also co-authored the UK BEIS Frazer-Nash Phase 2 economics study already in the register (SRC-018 to SRC-021), using a related Frazer-Nash cost model - the ESA and UK studies share methodological lineage and should not be treated as fully independent corroboration of each other.
What it assumes
Spacelift cost drawn from a probabilistic distribution reflecting approximately 2022 launch-market data (see CLM-0281 for the explicit EUR/kg-to-GEO sensitivity values used elsewhere in the same study); GEO orbit via reusable heavy-lift launch plus a chemical orbit-transfer vehicle; 20% hurdle/discount rate for LCOE; 30-year design life with performance degradation modelled; load factor 95-98.5% (1hr or 0.5hr/day allowance for eclipse/beam interruption); 1.44 GW CASSIOPeiA reference satellite, Europe-wide average elevation angle and land cost; FOAK vs 10th-of-a-kind unit count as stated.
Where it comes from
"Figure 3-6 ... shows an expected range between EUR106/MWh (p10) and EUR206/MWh (p90)" (p.28); Table 3-7: "SBSP NOAK 10th of a kind, 90th percentile 155.5 / 50th percentile 88.5" EUR/MWh, 2022 prices (p.33)
Basis: EUR2022
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
- Contradicts
- CLM-0285 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0280
CLM-0280, Energy Aperture, as of 2022-07.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-078
- CLM-0152Two UK industry planning documents, from 2022 and 2025, each state a beam-intensity design figure in the 230-245 watts-per-square-metre...CLM-0189A separate 2022 study for the European Space Agency, by Frazer-Nash and London Economics, estimates the cost of electricity from a first...CLM-0190This European study finds that a full Europe-wide space solar power programme would cost about 418 billion euros in today's money but...CLM-0191This 2022 report is one of two parallel studies the European Space Agency commissioned on the costs and benefits of space solar power: this...CLM-0281The study tested how much the cost of launching material into space changes the price of space solar power. It used launch-cost data from...CLM-0282A 2022 ESA-commissioned study modelled that, from 2022 to 2070, space solar power for Europe could deliver a net economic benefit of about...CLM-0539A UK consultancy, working for the European Space Agency and using the same design as its reference point, actually published a full weight...CLM-0967The 2022 European study assumed it takes two years to build a satellite in orbit, and that getting parts launched could be the thing that...More on the source page.