Value chain · CLM-0189
In plain terms
A separate 2022 study for the European Space Agency, by Frazer-Nash and London Economics, estimates the cost of electricity from a first full-scale unit, with investors expecting a 20% return, at between about 11 and 21 euro cents per kWh, and notes that if launch costs could reach levels already being observed for reusable NASA/SpaceX flights (about 400 euros per kg), the technology would become genuinely competitive.
The claim as recorded
This ESA-commissioned (Frazer-Nash with London Economics) cost-benefit study of a 1.44 GW FOAK CASSIOPeiA system, averaged across five European countries, gives an LCOE range of EUR106/MWh (p10) to EUR206/MWh (p90) at a 20% hurdle rate, 2022 prices; a fixed-spacelift-cost sensitivity test uses low/median/high values of EUR454/kg, EUR1,877/kg and EUR3,301/kg to GEO, and states that "if the spacelift cost can reflect costs observed with reusable rockets in the USA that are launched via the public/private partnership between NASA and SpaceX (~EUR400/kg), then the LCOE of SBSP is highly competitive compared to other electricity generating assets."
Scope and limits
The EUR106-206/MWh range is a FOAK estimate (the same report gives NOAK LCOE separately in Table 3-7, printed p.33, "LCOE and VALCOE 2040, by energy source (2022 prices, EUR/MWh)" with the euro sign transliterated: 155.5 for "10th of a kind, 90th percentile" and 88.5 for "10th of a kind, 50th percentile"), for a different-sized system (1.44 GW vs Frazer-Nash UK's 2 GW) and a different price year (2022 vs 2018) than the UK cluster (CLM-0170), so the two should not be subtracted or ratio'd directly without adjusting for scale, currency and price year.
What it assumes
The "~EUR400/kg" figure is treated by the report as an already-OBSERVED cost (not a forecast), attributed to the NASA/SpaceX public/private launch partnership, though the specific mission/payload class this refers to is not given in the extracted text.
Where it comes from
"A European-wide average LCOE was computed for a 1.44 GW FOAK system using average elevation and land cost data, and a 20% hurdle rate... an expected range between EUR106/MWh (p10) and EUR206/MWh (p90)." "the analysis examines the LCOE with spacelift cost (euro) per kg to GEO fixed at the lowest, median, and highest value from the dataset", given as a list of 454, 1,877 and 3,301 EUR/kg; "If the spacelift cost can reflect costs observed with reusable rockets in the USA that are launched via the public/private partnership between NASA and SpaceX (~EUR400/kg), then the LCOE of SBSP is highly competitive compared to other electricity generating assets." (p.28-29).
Basis: EUR, 2022 prices (stated in the report's Table 3-7 and Figure 3-9 captions, not in section 3.3.2 where the EUR106-206/MWh range sits), EUR/MWh and EUR/kg to GEO; 20% hurdle rate for the FOAK range
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0189
CLM-0189, Energy Aperture, as of 2022-07.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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