Value chain · CLM-0175
In plain terms
For every pound of public money put into the whole programme, the study estimates the UK economy gets back between GBP 1.30 and GBP 1.80. It counts only the publicly funded share of spending, and values wider economic activity rather than just electricity sold.
The claim as recorded
Combining the full development programme (2022-2039) and 30 years of FOAK operation (2040-2070), Frazer-Nash's benefit-cost ratio (BCR) for the CASSIOPeiA programme is estimated at 1.3:1 (excluding optimism bias) to 1.8:1 (including optimism bias), i.e. NPV benefits of GBP 11,261m against costs of GBP 8,672m (excl. optimism bias) or GBP 31,871m against GBP 17,297m (incl. optimism bias), all 2018 prices.
Scope and limits
BCR here is a "gross economic footprint" style measure (GDP multiplier effects, spillovers) rather than a pure social cost-benefit test with monetised externalities such as avoided carbon - contrast with SRC-078's very different, externality-inclusive BCR-equivalent approach (CLM-0192). The ratio applies GDP multipliers to the public-sector funding contribution only, "considering only the share of direct output that is funded by the public sector" (p.44, fn 12), and footnote 13 says the gross multipliers do not consider displacement or deadweight.
What it assumes
The GDP-multiplier-based economic footprint methodology (produced by Oxford Economics per the report) correctly captures indirect and induced effects, and that the assumed public funding share (from CLM-0174) is provided.
Where it comes from
"The analysis (Table 10) suggests a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) between 1.3:1 and 1.8:1 for the first of a kind system, assuming a 20% hurdle rate and associated public sector funding contribution." Programme totals: excl. optimism bias, costs GBP8,672m / benefits GBP11,261m / BCR 1.3:1; incl. optimism bias, costs GBP17,297m / benefits GBP31,871m / BCR 1.8:1 (p.44).
Basis: GBP, 2018 prices, NPV, Green Book discount rates
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0175
CLM-0175, Energy Aperture, as of 2021.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-021
- CLM-0170A UK government-commissioned study estimates the cost of electricity from a mature (fifth-built) space solar power satellite at roughly 3.5...CLM-0171The same model shows the cost of electricity is noticeably higher for the first unit built than for the fifth, and when this study compares...CLM-0172The study uses a high assumed rate of return (20%) to work out the headline cost-per-unit-of-electricity figure, but uses a much lower...CLM-0173Developing a working space solar power system for the UK is estimated to cost somewhere between about 7.5 and 16 billion pounds (in 2021...CLM-0174On the study's own numbers, a first space solar power system would not, by itself, earn investors the return they would expect (20%) - it...CLM-0522The UK study used a 20% return requirement, based on what institutional investors are expected to want. The US study used 3%, on a one-line...CLM-0538The US and UK studies are not just using different toughness levels for the same test -- they are answering different questions. The US...CLM-0714The 2021 UK study by Frazer-Nash Consultancy proposed that the satellite fly itself to its final orbit, using its own solar panels to run...More on the source page.
- Cited in articles