Value chain · CLM-0192
In plain terms
The full list of assumptions behind the headline result of NASA's 2024 study, that space solar power would cost far more than ground alternatives, includes a launch cost of $850-1,000 per kilogram, only a 10-year satellite lifetime, and a solar cell efficiency of 35% - each of these, not just launch cost, is doing some of the work in producing the high headline cost figure.
The claim as recorded
NASA OTPS's Table 1 baseline parameter set (verified against a rendered page image) is: launch cost $1,000/kg with a 15% block-buy discount to $850/kg; orbital transfer via 12 refuel launches; 100 reuses of each launch vehicle; 35% solar cell efficiency; operations costs of $1.2M/month; a 10-year hardware lifetime; initial hardware costs of $1M (module)/$1B (servicer)/$500M (debris removal); and manufacturing learning curves of 75%/85%/90% (module/servicer/debris) - yielding the already-recorded baseline results of LCOE $0.61 and $1.59/kWh and emissions 26 and 40 gCO2eq/kWh for RD1 and RD2 respectively.
Scope and limits
This is a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) cost baseline only, for two specific design reference systems (RD1, RD2); it is not a NOAK or mature-industry estimate.
What it assumes
These are the report's own stated baseline assumptions, explicitly labelled by the report as a mix of "beyond" (2050-achievable), "comparable" (achievable today) and "below" (below today's capability) per its colour-coded triangle key.
Where it comes from
Table 1, Baseline column, verified against a rendered image of the page and two zoomed crops: "Launch Cost (+15% block buy discount)... $1,000/kg ($850/kg)"; "Orbital Transfer Method... 12 refuel launches"; "Reuses of each launch vehicle... 100"; "Solar Cell Efficiency... 35%"; "Operations Costs... 1.2M / month"; "Hardware Lifetime... 10 years"; "Initial Hardware Costs (Module, Servicer, Debris)... 1 M... 1 B... 500 M"; "Manufacturing Learning Curves (Module, Servicer, Debris)... 75%... 85%... 90%"; "Results... LCOE $/kWh... 0.61 and 1.59... Emissions (gCO2eq./kWh)... 26 and 40" (p.vi; the three hardware-cost values and the three learning-curve values each sit in separate cells, and the 2 in gCO2eq is a subscript on the page).
Basis: USD, Fiscal Year 2022 (FY22) dollars (report PDF p.4, printed p.iii: "All cost estimates are measured in Fiscal Year 2022 (FY22) dollars."); parameters are a mix of 2050-achievable, current and below-current assumptions per the report's own framing; USD/kg and USD/kWh
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-038 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0192
CLM-0192, Energy Aperture, as of 2024-01.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-012
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