Value chain · CLM-0241
In plain terms
For the "Mature Planar Array" design, an independent cost model built the same way as for the other design gets a materially lower electricity cost than NASA's published figure, even though the underlying costs match closely.
The claim as recorded
The same independent discounted-cash-flow method applied to RD2, using bottom-up CapEx and FOM within 1% of NASA OTPS's own published RD2 totals, gives an LCOE of 1.015 USD/kWh (FY2022 USD, 3% discount rate), about 36% below NASA OTPS's published 1.59 USD/kWh.
Scope and limits
Still within a factor of two of the published figure (the task's own pass threshold), but the gap is real and specific, not noise; see CLM-0247 for the proposed mechanism.
What it assumes
Same DCF timeline assumptions as CLM-0240. RD2's low (0.60) capacity factor and long (12.625-yr) build phase are taken directly from the source, not varied here.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Trace, Section 6, RD2: bottom-up CapEx $138B vs NASA's $137B (ratio 1.01x); FOM $298B vs $297B (ratio 1.00x); launches 3,973 vs 3,960 (ratio 1.00x); DCF LCOE 1.0153 $/kWh vs published 1.59 $/kWh (ratio 0.64x).
Basis: FY2022 USD, nominal; discount rate 3%; 2 GW delivered, 30-yr system life
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-038 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0241
CLM-0241, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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