Value chain · CLM-0240
In plain terms
A from-scratch cost model of the "Innovative Heliostat Swarm" design gets almost the same electricity cost as NASA's own study: about 62 cents per kWh versus their 61 cents.
The claim as recorded
An independent bottom-up discounted-cash-flow model, built from RD1's stated mass (5,899,600 kg develop upmass), launch count (2,321 launches, independently re-derived), and a reverse-engineered manufacturing learning-curve formula, gives RD1 baseline LCOE of 0.623 USD/kWh (FY2022 USD, 3% discount rate) against NASA OTPS's published 0.61 USD/kWh (FY2022 USD) -- a 2% difference.
Scope and limits
Order-of-magnitude check only; does not confirm NASA OTPS's underlying spreadsheet; the annual cash-flow timeline is this model's own construction, not sourced.
What it assumes
Wright/Crawford learning-curve formula reverse-engineered from the report's own outputs (validated to ~1-5% on three separate cost lines); CapEx spread evenly over a 7.375-yr build with zero energy output during build (ASSUMED); ground-segment cost as a one-off lump at commissioning (ASSUMED); Maintain-phase costs as two equal lumps at operational years 10 and 20 (ASSUMED).
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Trace, Section 6, RD1: bottom-up CapEx $91.2B vs NASA's $90.6B (ratio 1.01x); FOM $186B vs $186B (ratio 1.00x); launches 2,321 vs 2,321 (exact); DCF LCOE 0.6231 $/kWh vs published 0.61 $/kWh.
Basis: FY2022 USD, nominal; discount rate 3%; 2 GW delivered, 30-yr system life
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-038 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0240
CLM-0240, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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