Value chain · CLM-0173
In plain terms
Developing a working space solar power system for the UK is estimated to cost somewhere between about 7.5 and 16 billion pounds (in 2021 prices on the report's own statement for this table) over 18 years, with the higher number reflecting a standard government allowance for cost overruns.
The claim as recorded
Frazer-Nash estimates an 18-year development programme (to first FOAK operation) with a Net Present Value cost (stated at p.32 to be in 2021 prices, though the report uses 2018 prices elsewhere) of GBP 7,539 million (p50, excluding optimism bias) rising to GBP 16,280 million (p50, including Green Book optimism bias); the executive summary rounds this to "GBP 7.5bn to GBP 16.3bn."
Scope and limits
This is a development-phase cost only (pre-revenue); it excludes the ongoing operating cost of the resulting FOAK system (see CLM-0175 for the combined development+operations NPV).
What it assumes
CASSIOPeiA-specific development plan (Phases 1-4, 2022-2039) and cost breakdown structure.
Where it comes from
"The study explores the impact of an 18 year development costing in the region of GBP7.5bn to GBP16.3bn." (p.3). Table 5, NPV (p50): GBP7,539M without optimism bias; GBP16,280M including optimism bias (p.34-35).
Basis: GBP, NPV (p50); price year conflicting at source: p.32, which governs Table 5, says the NPVs are "in todays (2021) prices", while p.11 and p.44 state 2018 for other analyses; Green Book social discount rate 3.5% (up to 30 years; 3% for 31-75 years, footnote 4)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0173
CLM-0173, Energy Aperture, as of 2021.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-021
- CLM-0170A UK government-commissioned study estimates the cost of electricity from a mature (fifth-built) space solar power satellite at roughly 3.5...CLM-0171The same model shows the cost of electricity is noticeably higher for the first unit built than for the fifth, and when this study compares...CLM-0172The study uses a high assumed rate of return (20%) to work out the headline cost-per-unit-of-electricity figure, but uses a much lower...CLM-0174On the study's own numbers, a first space solar power system would not, by itself, earn investors the return they would expect (20%) - it...CLM-0175For every pound of public money put into the whole programme, the study estimates the UK economy gets back between GBP 1.30 and GBP 1.80...CLM-0522The UK study used a 20% return requirement, based on what institutional investors are expected to want. The US study used 3%, on a one-line...CLM-0538The US and UK studies are not just using different toughness levels for the same test -- they are answering different questions. The US...CLM-0714The 2021 UK study by Frazer-Nash Consultancy proposed that the satellite fly itself to its final orbit, using its own solar panels to run...More on the source page.