SRC-223

Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment. 371 pp.

Published claims resting on this source

• CLM-0741 A 2026 independent assessment says China is unlikely to have a working weapon that could shoot down a satellite as high as geostationary orbit, because only one test, in May 2013, is known to have targeted altitudes above low orbit, and such a weapon would likely need several tests to be militarily useful. The assessment adds that this capability is likely still being tested or developed.
• CLM-0742 A 2026 assessment lists thirteen Chinese anti-satellite tests since 2005; only one is recorded as going far above low orbit, to about 30,000 km in May 2013, short of the roughly 36,000 km of geostationary orbit given in the same assessment, and the assessment records it as probably just a rocket test with no known target.
• CLM-0743 Two separate expert bodies looked at the same 2013 Chinese launch and disagreed about what it was: one calls it probably a rocket test, the other says it hints at a basic ability to attack satellites very far from Earth. Neither says a satellite that high has ever actually been shot down.
• CLM-0744 The higher a satellite orbits, the longer the warning it gets: minutes in low orbit, but several hours at geostationary altitude, and the 2026 assessment doubts a missile could still track a target that had moved during those hours.
• CLM-0745 The 2026 assessment says that if China physically destroyed a satellite, it would create long-lasting debris that would also endanger its own satellites, would be relatively easy to identify as the attacker, and would face international condemnation, so China would have to weigh these costs against less destructive options such as jamming or blinding.
• CLM-0765 Searching all fourteen security and defence sources for anything about insurance or liability turns up no premium, no cover limit and no liability figure for any satellite; the only real mention is one reference to the 1972 space liability treaty.

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