Value chain · CLM-0741
In plain terms
A 2026 independent assessment says China is unlikely to have a working weapon that could shoot down a satellite as high as geostationary orbit, because only one test, in May 2013, is known to have targeted altitudes above low orbit, and such a weapon would likely need several tests to be militarily useful. The assessment adds that this capability is likely still being tested or developed.
The claim as recorded
Secure World Foundation's 2026 open-source counterspace assessment judges it unlikely that China currently possesses an operational direct-ascent anti-satellite capability against high-altitude satellites in MEO or GEO, noting that only one test, in May 2013, is known to have targeted higher altitudes and that such a system would likely require multiple tests to become militarily useful; its section assessment states the deep-space capability is likely still in the experimental or development phase with insufficient evidence to conclude whether it will become operational in the near future.
Scope and limits
An open-source assessment by a non-governmental research foundation, resting on publicly reported test events; it is a judgement about capability, not a statement that no such capability could be developed, and SWF states the deep-space programme is in development. It covers China only and says nothing about Russian, US or any other state's high-altitude kinetic capability. It is not evidence about non-kinetic threats, which the same document treats separately.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
PDF p.184, verbatim: "It is unlikely that China currently possesses an operational DA-ASAT capability against high altitude satellites in MEO or GEO orbits. Only one test, in May 2013, is known to have targeted higher altitudes, and given the unique nature of such a system, it would likely require multiple tests to become militarily useful." SRC-223 PDF p.178, verbatim: "Chinese DA-ASAT capability against deep space targets (medium Earth orbit, or MEO, and GEO) is likely still in the experimental or development phase, and there is not sufficient evidence to conclude whether it will become an operational capability in the near future."
Basis: qualitative capability judgement; no probability stated
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-011 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0741
CLM-0741, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-04.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-223
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