SRC-145

Annual Technology Baseline 2025, electricity edition.

Commissioned by US DOE. Who paid for a study is recorded because it bears on how its conclusions should be read, not because it makes them wrong.

Published claims resting on this source

• CLM-0260 A U.S. government-linked cost model (formerly NREL, now called the National Laboratory of the Rockies) estimates that plain utility-scale solar power could cost between about 14 and 56 US dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, depending how fast costs fall and how good the sunlight is at the site. Adding four hours of battery storage to smooth output raises this to about 25-113 dollars per megawatt-hour. These figures do not include the cost of storage large enough to cover a full day or night, so they are not a "24-hour power" cost.
• CLM-0261 The same U.S. cost model estimates onshore wind power at roughly 16-73 US dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, and offshore wind at a much wider 42-460 dollars per megawatt-hour, depending on cost-case assumptions and how good the wind resource is at the site. The high end of the offshore wind range reflects a poor wind site and a pessimistic cost case; it is not a typical or recommended figure.
• CLM-0469 The same U.S. cost model puts new nuclear power at roughly 49-137 US dollars per megawatt-hour and geothermal power at roughly 41-149 dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, depending on the cost-case assumed. Both technologies can run almost continuously (90 percent of the time or more), so, unlike solar and wind, these figures are already close to a "firm power" cost without needing extra storage. The same source gives building and running costs for new gas power plants and coal plants, but does not publish a matching cost-per-unit-of-electricity figure for them in this edition.
• CLM-0543 The US national energy laboratory's 2025 projections have the cost of a four-hour grid battery falling by 2050 in every case it models, to roughly 100 to 300 dollars per kilowatt-hour of storage depending on how fast costs fall.

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