Value chain · CLM-0260
In plain terms
A U.S. government-linked cost model (formerly NREL, now called the National Laboratory of the Rockies) estimates that plain utility-scale solar power could cost between about 14 and 56 US dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, depending how fast costs fall and how good the sunlight is at the site. Adding four hours of battery storage to smooth output raises this to about 25-113 dollars per megawatt-hour. These figures do not include the cost of storage large enough to cover a full day or night, so they are not a "24-hour power" cost.
The claim as recorded
NREL/NLR 2025 ATB projects U.S. utility-scale solar PV LCOE of 14-56 USD/MWh (2023 real) across its Conservative/Moderate/Advanced cost cases and 10 resource classes for 2030-2050; adding 4-hour battery storage raises this to 25-113 USD/MWh over the same span.
Scope and limits
US-only; unsubsidised basis, so not directly comparable to a subsidy-inclusive terrestrial figure without adjustment; PV+battery figure is NOT a full firm/baseload figure, only 4-hour storage; range spans resource-quality classes as well as cost-case scenarios, so is wider than a single-site estimate would be.
What it assumes
capacity factor 20.6-35.2% (utility PV, rising over time, Moderate case); WACC 5.63% nominal / 3.06% real; 30-year cost recovery period; unsubsidised (Without Tax Credits case); no stated system scale (generic utility-scale plant).
Where it comes from
Summary_LCOE sheet, UtilityPV Moderate 2030 range 29.27-46.04; UtilityPV Advanced 2050 range 13.85-22.03; Utility-Scale PV-Plus-Battery Conservative 2030 range 74.14-112.60.
Basis: USD2023, REAL, UNFIRMED (utility PV) / PARTIALLY FIRMED (PV+battery, 4-hour onsite storage only, not capacity-accredited)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0260
CLM-0260, Energy Aperture, as of 2025.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-145
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