Value chain · CLM-0469
In plain terms
The same U.S. cost model puts new nuclear power at roughly 49-137 US dollars per megawatt-hour and geothermal power at roughly 41-149 dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, depending on the cost-case assumed. Both technologies can run almost continuously (90 percent of the time or more), so, unlike solar and wind, these figures are already close to a "firm power" cost without needing extra storage. The same source gives building and running costs for new gas power plants and coal plants, but does not publish a matching cost-per-unit-of-electricity figure for them in this edition.
The claim as recorded
NREL/NLR 2025 ATB projects U.S. new-build large nuclear LCOE of 49-137 USD/MWh, small modular reactor LCOE of 45-141 USD/MWh for the Nuclear - Small display name only, rising to 108-253 USD/MWh if Nuclear - Microreactor is included under the same TechDetail code, and geothermal LCOE of 41-149 USD/MWh (2023 real), across its Conservative/Moderate/Advanced cost cases, for 2030-2050. Large nuclear runs at 93% and hydrothermal geothermal at 90% assumed capacity factor. The workbook does not publish a projected LCOE for natural gas combined cycle or coal in this edition; only capital and O&M costs are given for those two.
Scope and limits
US-only; unsubsidised; SMR figures are explicitly flagged by the source as early-stage/illustrative and not directly comparable to mature technologies; the absence of a gas/coal LCOE means this source cannot be used, by itself, to state a fossil-fuel comparator figure - CLM-0263 (Lazard) is needed for that.
What it assumes
nuclear capacity factor 93% (flat, Moderate case); geothermal (hydrothermal flash) capacity factor 90% (flat); WACC nuclear/gas/coal 6.89% nominal/4.28% real, geothermal 5.84% nominal/3.26% real; 30-year cost recovery period used in the LCOE calculation for all three, though ATB's separate "TechLife" table gives nuclear a 60-year physical asset life; unsubsidised.
Where it comes from
Summary_LCOE sheet, Nuclear Advanced 2050 = 48.79; Nuclear Conservative 2030 = 136.98; NuclearSMR Moderate 2040 = 77.09; Geothermal (all) Advanced 2050 range 41.17-66.62. Confirmed absence of gas/coal LCOE by full-text search of the Natural Gas_FE detail sheet and by technology-list check of Summary_LCOE and Summary_CF.
Basis: USD2023, REAL, FIRMED (both technologies are baseload/dispatchable-capable by design; ATB does not itself use the word "firmed")
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
- Supersedes
- CLM-0412 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0469
CLM-0469, Energy Aperture, as of 2025.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-145
- CLM-0260A U.S. government-linked cost model (formerly NREL, now called the National Laboratory of the Rockies) estimates that plain utility-scale...CLM-0261The same U.S. cost model estimates onshore wind power at roughly 16-73 US dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, and offshore wind at a...CLM-0543The US national energy laboratory's 2025 projections have the cost of a four-hour grid battery falling by 2050 in every case it models, to...