Value chain · CLM-0261
In plain terms
The same U.S. cost model estimates onshore wind power at roughly 16-73 US dollars per megawatt-hour by 2030-2050, and offshore wind at a much wider 42-460 dollars per megawatt-hour, depending on cost-case assumptions and how good the wind resource is at the site. The high end of the offshore wind range reflects a poor wind site and a pessimistic cost case; it is not a typical or recommended figure.
The claim as recorded
NREL/NLR 2025 ATB projects U.S. land-based wind LCOE of 16-73 USD/MWh (2023 real) and offshore wind LCOE of 42-460 USD/MWh across its Conservative/Moderate/Advanced cost cases and published resource classes for 2030-2050.
Scope and limits
US-only; unsubsidised; both technologies are UNFIRMED generation, not directly comparable to a dispatchable/baseload cost without adding a firming-cost adjustment (see CLM-0264 for that adjustment from Lazard); offshore wind range is very wide and should not be quoted as a single number without stating which resource class and cost case.
What it assumes
capacity factor 23.3-54.1% (land-based wind) and 27.7-50.5% (offshore wind), Moderate case; WACC land-based 5.74% nominal/3.16% real, offshore 5.87% nominal/3.28% real; 30-year cost recovery period; unsubsidised.
Where it comes from
Summary_LCOE sheet, LandbasedWind Advanced 2050 range 15.53-36.68; LandbasedWind Conservative 2030 range 31.91-72.97; OffShoreWind Conservative 2030 range 116.21-459.62; OffShoreWind Advanced 2050 range 42.05-93.85.
Basis: USD2023, REAL, UNFIRMED
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0261
CLM-0261, Energy Aperture, as of 2025.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-145
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