Value chain · CLM-1477
In plain terms
The UK government's 2021 cost study for a power satellite assumes that parts fail and wear over the satellite's life, costing it between nothing and a quarter of a per cent of its output each year.
The claim as recorded
The cost model behind Frazer-Nash's 2021 study for the UK government includes a degradation factor that "accounts for the failure and degradation of proportion modules during the life of the satellite", drawn from a uniform distribution of average degradation rates from 0 to 0.25 per cent a year.
Evidence behind this: T4: consultancy input-data annex for a UK government cost model.
Scope and limits
An assumed input range, not a measured rate; the annex gives no source for the 0 to 0.25 per cent. It covers the satellite only: rectenna outages are not in this factor, and the model's load factor of 1 leaves out downtime, which the annex calls slightly optimistic (CLM-0177). Over a 30-year life, 0.25 per cent a year compounds to about a 7 per cent shortfall by the last year (our arithmetic, not in the source). The page's "proportion modules" is printed as quoted.
What it assumes
Design life 30 years and load factor 1 in the same model (SRC-019 PDF p.3; CLM-0177).
Where it comes from
PDF p.7, Table B1, read at a zoom 3 crop: "Degradation factor accounts for the failure and degradation of proportion modules during the life of the satellite. The distribution assumes a range of average degradation rates from 0 to 0.25% per year;". PDF p.4, Table B2: Degradation Rate, Uniform, 0 to 0.0025. PDF p.3: Annex B describes the input data for the LCOE model of Annex A (paraphrase).
Basis: per cent of output per year, average, as a uniform distribution.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1477
CLM-1477, Energy Aperture, as of 2021.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-019
- CLM-0172The study uses a high assumed rate of return (20%) to work out the headline cost-per-unit-of-electricity figure, but uses a much lower...CLM-0176The launch-cost range that drives most of this study's cost uncertainty is not based on any launch that has actually happened - for...CLM-0177The cost model assumes the satellite gets cheaper to build the more of them are made, using a range that runs from the faster cost-learning...CLM-0522The UK study used a 20% return requirement, based on what institutional investors are expected to want. The US study used 3%, on a one-line...CLM-0531Neither the UK nor the US figure for what it costs to get a kilogram of hardware into the power station's real orbit is based on an actual...CLM-0539A UK consultancy, working for the European Space Agency and using the same design as its reference point, actually published a full weight...CLM-0714The 2021 UK study by Frazer-Nash Consultancy proposed that the satellite fly itself to its final orbit, using its own solar panels to run...CLM-0715The 2021 UK study assumed one extra fuel launch for every payload launch; NASA's 2024 study assumed twelve. The reason, which neither study...More on the source page.