Value chain · CLM-0176
In plain terms
The launch-cost range that drives most of this study's cost uncertainty is not based on any launch that has actually happened - for Starship, a rocket not yet in service, it assumes a launch costs about the same as a Falcon Heavy launch did in 2021 (100 million US dollars), and it also uses a British spaceplane concept (SABRE) that has never flown.
The claim as recorded
Frazer-Nash's GBP358-2,410/kg spacelift cost distribution (the range is CLM-0170's; these pages give only the two point estimates below) is derived from two unproven, as-yet-unflown-to-that-spec 2021 launch concepts: (1) SpaceX Starship, with chemical tugs raising the payload from LEO to MEO (about 5,900 km), where the SPS is assembled and then raises itself to GEO by on-board electric propulsion; with tug refuelling, 2 launches deliver 61.3 tonnes to GEO, at an assumed per-launch cost "comparable with the current cost for SpaceX Falcon Heavy, $100M," giving $3,260/kg to GEO; and (2) a Reaction Engines SABRE-powered fully-reusable spaceplane concept, assumed to fly 4 times/week at GBP7.5M/flight with a 15-tonne LEO payload, giving GBP1,340/kg to GEO including chemical-tug refuelling costs.
Scope and limits
Neither point estimate had been achieved in practice as of the 2021 report date - Starship's first orbital test flight was still pending, and SABRE has never flown. By 2026-10 Reaction Engines had entered administration (31 Oct 2024) and SABRE is no longer an active programme (FlightGlobal, Nov 2024; one secondary source, unverified). Starship reached orbit on Flight 14 (28 Sep 2026), but no ship-to-ship propellant transfer, high-count reuse or published price is reported (one secondary source, unverified). This is a forecast/aspirational input, not a measured launch cost. As of the 2026 vintage of this research project, actual Falcon Heavy and Starship costs and flight cadence should be checked against BryceTech's current data (see part-a for SRC-083/084) to see how this 2021 forecast has aged.
What it assumes
Starship achieves up to 100 reuses with only modest refurbishment; the SABRE spaceplane achieves 200 reuses at a 4-flights/week tempo; both assumptions are the report's own, not observed.
Where it comes from
"Elon Musk has quoted very ambitious figures for Starship launch costs, which assumes high flight rates and a life of up to 100 flights... an estimated 61.3 tonnes can be delivered to GEO with 2 launches. Assuming a cost per launch comparable with the current cost for SpaceX Falcon Heavy, $100M, the cost is $3,260/kg." "Reaction Engines has developed estimates... an operating cost of GBP7.5M per flight with a payload of 15 tonnes to LEO, the total cost to GEO, including the cost of chemical tug refuelling flights, is GBP1,340/kg." (p.10-11, Annex B). SRC-019 PDF p.11: "infrastructure of chemical tugs would raise the payload to a medium earth orbit (MEO), just above the inner Van Allen belt, at an altitude of around 5,900km. Here the SPS would be assembled."
Basis: GBP and USD, 2021-vintage forecast (not observed cost), per kg to GEO
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0176
CLM-0176, Energy Aperture, as of 2021.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-019
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