Value chain · CLM-0544
In plain terms
The UK government's own cost model expects deep geothermal power, which it treats as an early-stage technology, to become much cheaper by 2050 than a first-of-a-kind plant would be in 2030.
The claim as recorded
UK DESNZ's Electricity Generation Costs 2025 Annex A projects deep granite geothermal levelised cost falling from GBP 270/MWh (2030, first-of-a-kind) to GBP 52/MWh (2050), as first-of-a-kind cost is shed with deployment.
Scope and limits
This is a projection for an immature technology, not a track record; deep geothermal has not been deployed at the scale DESNZ's 2050 figure assumes. GBP basis, not converted to USD here, because an FX conversion must not be made silently. These are not power-only costs: the report (p.23) says deep geothermal "was modelled as a combined heat and power (CHP) system to allow heat revenues to be accounted for within the LCOE", assuming 20% of heat sold, and each year's build-up carries a negative "Additional Costs" line (-70 in 2030, -71 in 2050). The estimates cover granite only.
What it assumes
DESNZ's own modelled first-of-a-kind-to-mature cost reduction trajectory for a technology not yet deployed at scale in the UK.
Where it comes from
Annex A, sheet "Additional Estimates 2030", column "Deep Granite Geothermal (FOAK)", row "Total": 270 GBP/MWh; sheet "Additional Estimates 2050", column "Deep Granite Geothermal", row "Total": 52 GBP/MWh. Both sheets state "All costs in 2024 real GBP prices". The report (p.11) lists deep geothermal for power among technologies "assumed to currently reflect more nascent (FOAK) technologies" and states that "For less established technologies there will generally be some learning associated with increased deployment that is factored into future cost estimates."
Basis: GBP2024, real
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0544
CLM-0544, Energy Aperture, as of 2025.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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