Value chain · CLM-0271
In plain terms
DESNZ estimated that a new gas power station in the UK, run almost continuously, would generate power at about 111-112 pounds per megawatt-hour (about 11 pence per kilowatt-hour), whether commissioned in 2030 or 2050. A gas plant with carbon capture, run the same way, is estimated slightly cheaper. These are the closest dispatchable, always-available comparators in this report; they are gas-fired, not firmed renewables.
The claim as recorded
DESNZ modelled the UK LCOE of unabated gas CCGT in its illustrative baseload case, labelled a 93% load factor (its assumptions sheet gives a net load factor of 86% for that case), at GBP 111/MWh for 2030 commissioning and GBP 112/MWh for 2050 commissioning; gas with carbon capture (CCUS) in its baseload case labelled 88% (net 83%) at GBP 105/MWh (2030) and GBP 104/MWh (2050). Deep granite geothermal, assumed to run at 85-93% load factor, was modelled at GBP 270/MWh (2030) falling to GBP 52/MWh (2050).
Scope and limits
Gas CCGT/CCUS at high load factor represent a dispatchable FOSSIL generator's cost, not the cost of firming an intermittent renewable with storage; do not use this as a proxy for a solar-plus-storage or wind-plus-storage LCOE. Deep granite geothermal is a nascent (first-of-a-kind) technology in the UK per DESNZ's own maturity classification, so its high modelled load factor and falling cost trajectory carry more uncertainty than the more established gas or wind figures. The report's Table 4 (SRC-154 p.25) gives the 2030 gas CCGT at 93% as GBP 109/MWh under the 2025 carbon prices, where Annex A gives 111 for the same column; the cause of the GBP 2 difference is not found.
What it assumes
net load factor 86% for the case DESNZ labels "Gas CCGT 93% Load Factor" and 83% for "Gas CCUS 900MW 88% Load Factor" (SRC-155 "Technical and Cost Assumptions", row "Average load factor (net load factor)"; Home note 8: net of availability); the report presents these cases as 93% and 88% baseload operation (SRC-154 p.32), and the source does not say which figure the LCOE uses; 85% rising to 93% by 2040 (deep granite geothermal); asset life 25 years (gas CCGT, gas CCUS), 25 rising to 30 years (geothermal); hurdle rate (real, central) 8.9% (gas CCGT and gas CCUS), 10.1% falling to 8.9% (geothermal); unsubsidised; generic UK plant.
Where it comes from
Annex A "Additional Estimates 2030" row "Total": Gas CCGT 93% Load Factor 111, Gas CCUS 900MW 88% Load Factor 105, Deep Granite Geothermal 270 (GBP/MWh). "Additional Estimates 2050" row "Total": Gas CCGT 93% Load Factor 112, Gas CCUS 900MW 88% Load Factor 104, Deep Granite Geothermal 52 (GBP/MWh).
Basis: GBP2024, REAL, FIRM/DISPATCHABLE (fossil baseload duty cycle, not a firmed renewable)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0271
CLM-0271, Energy Aperture, as of 2025.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-154
- CLM-0270DESNZ estimated in its 2025 report that a new large solar farm built in the UK and commissioned in 2030 would generate power at about 60...CLM-0272The UK government's 2025 cost report does not give a single number for what it would cost to make solar or wind power available around the...CLM-0524Every UK-specific or typical-country cost-of-capital figure found sits well below the 20% rate Frazer-Nash used, even at the top of DESNZ's...CLM-0544The UK government's own cost model expects deep geothermal power, which it treats as an early-stage technology, to become much cheaper by...
- Also from SRC-155
- CLM-0270DESNZ estimated in its 2025 report that a new large solar farm built in the UK and commissioned in 2030 would generate power at about 60...CLM-0544The UK government's own cost model expects deep geothermal power, which it treats as an early-stage technology, to become much cheaper by...