Value chain · CLM-0270
In plain terms
DESNZ estimated in its 2025 report that a new large solar farm built in the UK and commissioned in 2030 would generate power at about 60 pounds per megawatt-hour (6 pence per kilowatt-hour), and one commissioned in 2050 at about 49 pounds. Onshore wind is estimated at a similar cost; offshore wind is estimated at roughly double the cost of solar or onshore wind. These figures do not include the cost of storing power or balancing the grid.
The claim as recorded
DESNZ modelled the UK LCOE of large-scale solar PV (>5MW) at GBP 60/MWh for 2030 commissioning and GBP 49/MWh for 2050 commissioning; onshore wind at GBP 58/MWh (2030) and GBP 53/MWh (2050); fixed offshore wind at GBP 103/MWh (2030) and GBP 89/MWh (2050); floating offshore wind at GBP 153/MWh (2030, first-of-a-kind) and GBP 91/MWh (2050, assumed mature). All figures real 2024 GBP, unsubsidised modelled generic-plant costs.
Scope and limits
This is a UK-wide generic modelled plant cost, not specific to any single site including the project's own rectenna case study site. It is DESNZ's modelled hurdle rate, not an observed market cost of capital, and not a Contracts for Difference strike price. It is unfirmed: no storage or system balancing cost is included, and DESNZ explicitly states that assessing wider system costs requires separate whole-power-system modelling not performed in this report.
What it assumes
net load factor 12% (solar PV), 36-37% (onshore wind), 48-50% (fixed offshore wind, rising over time); asset life 38 years (solar PV), 35 years (onshore wind), 30 years (fixed offshore wind), 28 years (floating offshore wind); hurdle rate (real, central estimate) 7.6% (solar PV and onshore wind), 8.9% (fixed offshore wind), 11.4% falling to 10.1% by 2035 (floating offshore wind); unsubsidised generic UK plant.
Where it comes from
Annex A "Additional Estimates 2030" sheet, row "Total": Large Scale Solar 60, Onshore Wind 58, Fixed Offshore Wind 103, Floating Offshore Wind (FOAK) 153 (GBP/MWh). "Additional Estimates 2050" sheet, row "Total": Large Scale Solar 49, Onshore Wind 53, Fixed Offshore Wind 89, Floating Offshore Wind 91 (GBP/MWh). Basis statement (p.10): "All cost estimates are in 2024 real values unless otherwise stated."
Basis: GBP2024, REAL, UNFIRMED (DESNZ states wider system costs are out of scope of this LCOE)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0270
CLM-0270, Energy Aperture, as of 2025.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-154
- CLM-0271DESNZ estimated that a new gas power station in the UK, run almost continuously, would generate power at about 111-112 pounds per...CLM-0272The UK government's 2025 cost report does not give a single number for what it would cost to make solar or wind power available around the...CLM-0524Every UK-specific or typical-country cost-of-capital figure found sits well below the 20% rate Frazer-Nash used, even at the top of DESNZ's...CLM-0544The UK government's own cost model expects deep geothermal power, which it treats as an early-stage technology, to become much cheaper by...
- Also from SRC-155
- CLM-0271DESNZ estimated that a new gas power station in the UK, run almost continuously, would generate power at about 111-112 pounds per...CLM-0544The UK government's own cost model expects deep geothermal power, which it treats as an early-stage technology, to become much cheaper by...