Value chain · CLM-0315
In plain terms
Even though NASA's own figures say space solar power's carbon footprint is about as good as five renewable sources of power on the ground (NASA also counts nuclear with them, though nuclear is not renewable), that similarity means paying extra for space solar power buys almost no additional carbon saving compared with those low-carbon sources - and even compared with gas, the implied price per tonne of carbon saved is extremely high, about 1,250 to 1,400 dollars.
The claim as recorded
Taking marginal abatement cost (MAC) as the cost premium divided by the emissions avoided, against NASA OTPS's own figures, SBSP's marginal abatement cost against terrestrial renewables (its most realistic substitute) is close to undefined, because the carbon difference is near zero (26-40 gCO2eq/kWh for SBSP versus NASA's own quoted 13-43 gCO2eq/kWh terrestrial range, already CLM-0125); against natural gas, using EIA's combined-cycle LCOE of 37.05 USD/MWh (2021 dollars) and a gas emissions factor of 486 gCO2eq/kWh (the life-cycle median for natural gas in SRC-012 Table 25; SRC-012's p.viii summary prints 486 for coal and 1,001 for gas, the labels swapped; see limits), the implied MAC is approximately 1,250 to 1,400 USD per tonne of CO2, depending on the gas emission factor (about 1,250 with SRC-012's life-cycle 486 gCO2eq/kWh, about 1,400 with EIA's combustion figure of 0.96 lb/kWh), about twice the 588 that the uncorrected factor gives.
Scope and limits
This is a T0 synthesis in the register, built from two already-registered NASA claims plus one EIA table; it has not been checked by a second party and rests on the basis-year mismatch noted above. It may NOT be quoted as a precise abatement-cost figure; it may be quoted only as an order-of-magnitude illustration that MAC does not rescue SBSP's economics even where its carbon case is favourable. SRC-012's p.viii SUMMARY TRANSPOSES COAL AND NATURAL GAS; its Table 25 does not. NASA OTPS p.viii states "the GHG emissions intensities of coal and natural gas are 486 gCO2eq./kWh and 1001 gCO2eq./kWh, respectively". Its own footnote 11 cites EIA FAQ 74, which gives coal 2.31 lb/kWh and natural gas 0.96 lb/kWh - coal more than DOUBLE gas. Converting at 453.59 g/lb: coal is about 1048 gCO2/kWh and gas about 435. So 1001 is the coal figure and 486 the gas figure, and the report has the two labels the wrong way round. Verified against the EIA source and the arithmetic re-checked 2026-09-05. The transcription here is faithful; the defect is the source's, and the fix is therefore an annotation rather than a rewrite of the quote. SRC-012 Table 25 (printed p.72, PDF 89, "Source data from NREL") gives natural gas 486 and coal 1001 gCO2eq/kWh as life-cycle medians, so the p.viii pair is Table 25's medians with the labels swapped (our reading of the two pages; footnote 11 points to EIA, but the numbers are NREL's). A SECOND BASIS FAULT APPLIES TO THE EIA END ONLY: 486 is a life-cycle figure, like SBSP's 26, but EIA's 0.96 lb/kWh is COMBUSTION CO2, so the about 1,400 end sets combustion CO2 against life-cycle CO2eq for SBSP. CONSEQUENCE FOR THIS RECORD, and it runs AGAINST SBSP: correcting the transposition roughly DOUBLES the implied marginal abatement cost, from about 588 to about 1,250 USD/tCO2. The register as it stood UNDERSTATED the abatement cost and made SBSP look better than the corrected arithmetic supports. Recorded 2026-09-05. The claim's term, terrestrial renewables, follows NASA's own label for its 13 to 43 gCO2eq/kWh range (PDF p.9, printed viii). That set is five renewable technologies plus nuclear fission, which is not renewable. The five renewables alone span 13 to 43 (Figure 2, PDF p.11; Table 25, PDF p.89), because wind ties nuclear at 13, so the near-zero carbon difference holds against the renewables alone and against nuclear.
What it assumes
This calculation deliberately mixes NASA's FY22-dollar, 2050-scenario LCOE with EIA's 2021-dollar, 2027-vintage gas LCOE and NASA's own 2021 gas emissions figure, none of which share a common basis year; it is presented as an illustrative order-of-magnitude calculation only, not a reconciled like-for-like figure, and is explicitly labelled as such throughout this note.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Working shown: cost premium vs terrestrial renewables = 0.61 USD/kWh (RD1, CLM-0123) minus 0.02-0.05 USD/kWh (NASA's own 2050 terrestrial range) = approximately 560-590 USD/MWh, against a near-zero emissions difference (26-40 vs 13-43 gCO2eq/kWh, CLM-0125), so MAC is not simply high but close to undefined. Against gas: cost premium = 610 USD/MWh (RD1) minus 37.05 USD/MWh (SRC-174 Table 4a, combined cycle, 2021 USD, 2027 vintage) = 573 USD/MWh; emissions avoided = 0.486 - 0.026 tCO2/MWh = 0.460 tCO2/MWh, taking 486 gCO2eq/kWh as the gas figure (SRC-012 Table 25, printed p.72 / PDF 89, gives natural gas 486 and coal 1001 as NREL life-cycle medians; the p.viii summary, PDF 9, prints 486 against coal and 1001 against gas); MAC = 573.02 / 0.460 = approximately 1,246 USD/tCO2. With the p.viii labels as printed (1,001 for gas) the same sum gives 588; with EIA's 0.96 lb/kWh combustion figure for gas (about 435 g) it gives about 1,401 (VER-1023).
Basis: mixed FY22 and 2021 USD, illustrative only, not reconciled to one basis year
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0315
CLM-0315, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-012
- CLM-0006None of the five main studies mentions the international radio-frequency exposure limits, or any safety standard, or a restricted area...CLM-0123NASA's own 2024 study puts space solar power at 12 to 80 times the cost it expects in 2050 from power stations on the ground, a set it...CLM-0124NASA also found that if several things improve at once, rather than just one, space solar power does become cost competitive.CLM-0125On carbon, NASA found space solar power within the range of five renewable ways of making power on the ground (wind, solar, solar thermal...CLM-0144A NASA study found that launching everything into space is by far the biggest cost of a space solar power system, and that most of those...CLM-0192The full list of assumptions behind the headline result of NASA's 2024 study, that space solar power would cost far more than ground...CLM-0193To get to a competitive cost, NASA's own 2024 analysis needs launch costs to halve, solar cells to get much more efficient, satellites to...CLM-0240A from-scratch cost model of the "Innovative Heliostat Swarm" design gets almost the same electricity cost as NASA's own study: about 62...More on the source page.
- Also from SRC-174
- CLM-0300The main international definition of LCOE is the flat price per unit of electricity a power plant would need to be paid, every year of its...CLM-0302The US government's own energy statistics agency warns that comparing plain LCOE across different kinds of power plant, without also...CLM-0307The US government's avoided-cost metric shows that, for the power plants it expects to be built, value and cost are within about 25 percent...
- Cited in articles