Value chain · CLM-0243
In plain terms
The huge number of rocket launches NASA calculated for each design can be rebuilt from scratch using just the mass of the hardware, how much a rocket can carry, and how many refuelling trips each delivery needs -- and it comes out almost exactly the same.
The claim as recorded
NASA OTPS's reported total lifecycle launch counts (2,321 for RD1, 3,960 for RD2) are independently reproduced (2,321 exact for RD1; 3,973 for RD2, 0.3% high) from only mass (5,899,600 kg RD1 develop upmass), Starship LEO payload capacity (100,000 kg), the stated 12:1 refuel ratio, and two refurbishment cycles over a 30-year life against a 10-year hardware lifetime.
Scope and limits
Confirms the launch-count arithmetic, not the underlying engineering feasibility of 100+ Starship-class launches per year sustained for a decade or more.
What it assumes
Dispose-phase launch count (20 RD1, 34 RD2) taken directly from source, not re-derived (this model's own attempted re-derivation via ADR vehicle mass/capacity overshot by roughly 30%, a small residual on a line item under 1% of total launches).
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Trace, Section 3: hardware launches = ceil(5,899,600/100,000) = 59; refuel = 59x12 = 708; Assemble = 767; refurb batches = round(30/10)-1 = 2; Maintain = 767x2 = 1,534; + 20 Dispose (sourced) = 2,321 total.
Basis: mass and launch-vehicle parameters as stated in source, FY2022 basis where costed
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-038 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0243
CLM-0243, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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