SRC-209

From Sputnik to Starship: Estimating the experience curve of space launch technology. PNAS Nexus 5(7):pgag217, DOI 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag217.

Published claims resting on this source

• CLM-0600 NASA's launch price was optimistic, not pessimistic. The expensive part is its assumption that each payload needs twelve refuelling flights, which multiplies the cost thirteen times.
• CLM-1389 Getting a kilogram into orbit has become more than 20 times cheaper since 1960, and the study finds the cost falls by about a fifth every time the total mass ever launched doubles.
• CLM-1390 The study expects launch to keep getting cheaper, to about a tenth of today's average by 2040, but says market power and space debris could slow that.

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