Value chain · CLM-1389
In plain terms
Getting a kilogram into orbit has become more than 20 times cheaper since 1960, and the study finds the cost falls by about a fifth every time the total mass ever launched doubles.
The claim as recorded
A 2026 peer-reviewed study of 4,405 launches from 1960 to 2025, covering over 330 rocket configurations from 16 spacefaring entities, finds the average cost of sending a kilogram to orbit fell from 87,023 USD in 1960 to 3,868 USD in 2025, in 2024 dollars and standardised to low Earth orbit, and estimates by Wright's Law that the average cost per kilogram falls 21.2 per cent for each doubling of cumulative payload to orbit.
Evidence behind this: T2-peer-reviewed econometric analysis of a compiled launch dataset
Scope and limits
Costs, not prices: the paper itself warns that a quasi-monopolist has an incentive to charge more than cost. An average across all launches and vehicles, not any one vehicle's cost. LEO-equivalent standardisation uses engineering coefficients set out in the dataset notes, not the paper. GEO or GTO costs, which bear on SBSP, are not given in the paper. The 87,023 and 3,868 are model inputs built partly from imputed costs where the notes say so. 87,023 / 3,868 = 22.5 times (our arithmetic); the paper says "over 20-fold".
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
Abstract: more than 4,400 launches (1960 to 2025) across 16 spacefaring geographical entities, from 87,023 USD in 1960 to 3,868 USD in 2025, 21.2% per doubling of cumulative payload. Results: all data standardised to 2024 USD to LEO; "over 87,000 USD/kg in 1960 to 3,868 USD/kg in 2025". Data section: over 330 rocket configurations and 4,405 launches. Methods: log-level regression with Newey-West HAC SEs (two lags); AR(1) and AR(2) Prais-Winsten checks leave coefficients unchanged.
Basis: USD 2024 per kg to LEO-equivalent
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1389
CLM-1389, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-07.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-209
- CLM-0600NASA's launch price was optimistic, not pessimistic. The expensive part is its assumption that each payload needs twelve refuelling...CLM-1390The study expects launch to keep getting cheaper, to about a tenth of today's average by 2040, but says market power and space debris could...