Value chain · CLM-1390
In plain terms
The study expects launch to keep getting cheaper, to about a tenth of today's average by 2040, but says market power and space debris could slow that.
The claim as recorded
The same study's central projection puts the average cost to orbit at 1,600 USD/kg by 2030 and 300 USD/kg by 2040, in 2024 dollars to low Earth orbit. It states that Starship, if it enters service in late 2026, would launch at an estimated "around 1,000 USD/kg, given full reusability" from the start. It warns that geopolitical shifts, monopolistic pricing and orbital debris may temper the gains.
Evidence behind this: T2-peer-reviewed projection from an estimated experience curve
Scope and limits
A projection, not an outcome. The Starship figure is the paper's own estimate, with no citation; its ref. 39 supports only the expectation of costs below 500 USD/kg. It is not a measured or published price. The 1,000 USD/kg matches NASA OTPS's launch assumption, as SRC-209's row notes; whether the two share a derivation is not checked here. LEO only: no GEO cost is given, and GEO is where SBSP designs sit.
What it assumes
Continued growth of payload to orbit along the paper's scenario.
Where it comes from
Abstract: central estimate 1,600 USD/kg by 2030 and 300 USD/kg by 2040; geopolitical shifts, monopolistic behaviour and debris "may temper these gains". Results: from roughly 3,800 USD today to 1,600 at the end of the decade and 300 in 2040 (Fig. 4); conservative and bullish scenarios use 30-year and 10-year windows. Discussion: Starship estimated at around 1,000 USD/kg from day one, given full reusability, with expert expectation of possibly below 500 USD/kg within a few years (its ref. 39); prices may sit above costs under a quasi-monopolist (its ref. 40).
Basis: USD 2024 per kg to LEO-equivalent
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-003 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1390
CLM-1390, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-07.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-209
- CLM-0600NASA's launch price was optimistic, not pessimistic. The expensive part is its assumption that each payload needs twelve refuelling...CLM-1389Getting a kilogram into orbit has become more than 20 times cheaper since 1960, and the study finds the cost falls by about a fifth every...