CALC-124

Price-year factors to USD 2025, and the values they restate

Calculation · Cited by CLM-1448

What this is

This is the project's own arithmetic, published in full so it can be checked rather than taken on trust. It is not a source. Every input it uses is cited to a record, and the conclusion it reaches only carries as far as those inputs do.

REGISTERED 2026-10-10 (ON-422). Drafted by 3d-03 (wip/3d-03-metrics 0dfd9c2d), checked PASS by 3d-02 (wip/3d-02-calccheck 4fdfba03, outputs/review/metrics-field-calcs-check-3d02-2026-10-10.md); landed by SBSP-coord. verified: VER-2287 CONFIRMED 2026-10-10.

Feeds the U1 estimate row (REF), the U3 REF cell and the price-year-only NC notes in U1. Basis: annual averages; USD 2025 real; FX at 2025 annual averages.

Why it was needed. Field rule 5 fixes USD 2025 real; CALC-060's rates were recalled, not held. These are computed from held files.

Inputs.

Quantity	Value	Source	Stated or assumed
US CPI-U, 12-month means	1977 60.608; 1978 65.233; 1979 72.575; 1980 82.408	SRC-771 (BLS, monthly 1977-1986)	STATED monthly; means ours
US CPI-U, 12-month means	2022 292.655; 2023 304.702; 2024 313.689	SRC-772 (BLS, monthly 2016-2025)	STATED monthly; means ours
US CPI-U 2025 annual average	321.943 (M13; October 2025 is missing from the monthly series)	SRC-773	STATED
UK CPI D7BT	2018 105.9; 2025 138.4	SRC-774 (ONS)	STATED
USD per GBP, 2025	1.3185	SRC-777 (Bank of England XUAAUSS)	STATED
Euro-area HICP	2022 116.82; 2025 128.75	SRC-775 (Eurostat)	STATED
USD per EUR, 2025	1.1299831	SRC-776 (ECB)	STATED

Working.

USD factor = 321.943 / mean(year)
  1977 5.3119   1978 4.9353   1979 4.4360   1980 3.9067
  2022 1.1001   2023 1.0566   2024 1.0263
GBP 2018 -> USD 2025 = 138.4 / 105.9 x 1.3185     = 1.7231
EUR 2022 -> USD 2025 = 128.75 / 116.82 x 1.1299831 = 1.2454

Applied
  CAS FOAK 51.3 / 66.3 / 96.0 GBP 2018      -> 88.4 / 114.2 / 165.4   (20% hurdle kept)
  CAS NOAK 35.2 / 49.7 / 79.4               -> 60.7 / 85.6 / 136.8
  ESA FOAK 106-206 EUR 2022                 -> 132.0-256.5
  REF U1 20.092 mills (1977; CALC-123)      -> 106.7 USD/MWh (18.586 -> 98.7)
  REF U3 2,300 USD/kW (1977)                -> 12,217, about 12,200
         2,700 USD/kW (13.5 bn / 5 GW, 1977) -> 14,342, about 14,300
         3,340 USD/kW (1978)                -> 16,484, about 16,500
         16,698 million (1978)              -> 82.4 billion
         102 billion (1977)                 -> 541.8, about 542 billion
  REF 2.6 cents/kWh (1979)                  -> 115.3 USD/MWh
  ATB offshore 42-460 (USD 2023)            -> 44.4-486.0
  ATB nuclear 49-137 (USD 2023)             -> 51.8-144.8

Result. The factors above, and the applied values as listed. Error: indices are printed to 3 decimals (BLS) or 1 decimal (ONS), so the factors carry under +/-0.1%; results are given to 3 or 4 figures, more than the ATB inputs and the 2.6 cents carry.

Where this fails. CPI-U is a consumer index, used here for capital and electricity costs alike; no producer or GDP deflator is held. The 2025 US value rests on SRC-773's annual average because a month is missing from SRC-772. Not applied where the source states no price year (Bragg's 41.0 mills/kWh, SRC-449 PDF p.656; NIAC, CLM-0188 (low confidence); RBOHB, CLM-0710) or is nominal with no stated inflation rate (Lazard, SRC-146). The CAS values keep their 20% hurdle and stay NC.

Cite this

energyaperture.com/calc/calc-124

CALC-124. The working above, not a source document.