Value chain · CLM-0710
In plain terms
The second European study, which had never been obtained here, is now in the archive. It puts the cost of a two-gigawatt first system at 213 euros per megawatt-hour, leaving out research and decommissioning costs, which is about five times the cost of solar power today and ten times its projected cost in 2050.
The claim as recorded
The Roland Berger / OHB study for ESA, the parallel study to Frazer-Nash flagged as unretrieved since CLM-0191, is now held. On "the most optimistic cost assumptions" it reports a levelised cost of electricity of 213 EUR/MWh for a 2 GW first-of-a-kind system (roughly 0.22 USD/kWh at 2022 rates), with the cost of R&D for the enabling technologies and decommissioning excluded from the calculation. Set against the 21 EUR/MWh it gives for solar, which is an IEA 2050 projection, that is 10.1 times (this register's arithmetic); against the study's own current 44-47 EUR/MWh for solar it is 4.5 to 4.8 times.
Scope and limits
EUR on the study's own basis (price year not stated), NOT restated onto the common basis of 2024 GBP, 20-year life and one shared discount rate, so it is NOT directly comparable with the restated figures in CLM-0379 without that work being done. A plain LCOE with R&D and decommissioning excluded, the exclusion graded as material in CLM-0186; the system-value adjustments the study discusses elsewhere are also excluded. Its capex does not reconcile: TN 04 p.14 attributes EUR 40-70 bn of first-system capex to TN 03, but TN 03 p.56 gives 8.07-33.41 bn EUR, and on TN 04's own Figure 27 parameters 213 EUR/MWh implies about EUR 24.7 bn, a figure in neither note (VER-823); the study's 69 and 49 EUR/MWh value-adjusted figures do reproduce from TN 03's 8.07 and 5.69 bn. T4 consultancy tier, commissioned by ESA, and the study describes its own assumptions as optimistic.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
(TN 04) PDF p.14, verbatim: "Calculating with the most optimistic cost assumptions, this results in a Levelised Cost of Electricity of 213 EUR/MWh", with comparators "(21 EUR/MWh, 33 EUR/MWh, 21 EUR/MWh and 95 EUR/MWh, respectively)" for solar, onshore wind, offshore wind and nuclear. PDF p.20: solar "is projected to decrease from the current 44-47 EUR/MWh to 20-25 EUR/MWh by 2050". PDF p.43: "The cost of R&D for the enabling technologies and decommission costs are not included in the LCoE calculation". The multiples 213/21 = 10.1 and 213/44-47 = 4.5-4.8 are this register's arithmetic; "10.1" does not appear in the study.
Basis: EUR, price year not stated (2022 inferred from the document date); PLAIN LCOE at a 10% cost of money over 30 years (SRC-207 Figure 27, image, per VER-823); R&D and decommissioning excluded; not restated to the common basis
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0710
CLM-0710, Energy Aperture, as of 2022.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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