Value chain · CLM-0188
Low confidence
The evidence behind this statement is thin, indirect or second-hand. Read it as a lead to check, not as a settled finding.
In plain terms
A 2012 NASA-funded concept study shows its own cost estimate falling from about $3.26 per kWh for a small near-term system down to about 9 cents per kWh for a much bigger system built with assumed future technology improvements - and the author states plainly that this headline low figure is only an early-stage estimate ("TRL 3"), not a validated cost.
The claim as recorded
Mankins' NASA NIAC-funded SPS-ALPHA study reports a design-reference-mission (DRM) progression from an 18 MW near-term case (DRM_3: Earth-to-orbit cost $1,500/kg, cost to first power ~$4.5 billion (~$250/W), 10-year lifetime, LCOE ~$3.26/kWh) to a 2,000 MW "recurring SPS, with aggressive tech advances" case (DRM_5/Case_4B: Earth-to-orbit cost $500/kg, cost to first power ~$31 billion (~$16/W), indefinite lifetime with maintenance, LCOE ~$0.09/kWh), and states the ~9 cents/kWh headline figure "has been validated only to an early TRL 3 level of maturity" and that "additional research and development... will be required for confirmation of this very promising finding."
Scope and limits
This is a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase 1 feasibility study - an early-stage, low-TRL exploratory analysis, not a detailed engineering cost estimate; the report itself disclaims that its own promising finding needs further confirmation.
What it assumes
"Selected advances in key component technologies" (unspecified in the extracted summary) are achieved; $500/kg Earth-to-orbit cost is achievable (a very aggressive assumption for 2012, when Falcon 9 list prices were roughly an order of magnitude higher per kg to LEO).
Where it comes from
"it appears that a full-scale SPS-ALPHA, when incorporating selected advances in key component technologies should be capable of delivering power at a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of approximately 9c/kilowatt-hour. At noted previously, at this point this result has been validated only to an early TRL 3 level of maturity... Additional research and development (R&D) will be required for confirmation of this very promising finding." (PDF p.9). DRM_3: "ETO Cost ($/kg) $1,500/kg... Cost to First Power... ~$4.5B (~$250 per Watt)... Lifetime 10 years... LCOE... ~$3.26 per kW-hr." DRM_5/Case_4B: "ETO Cost ($/kg) $500/kg... ~$31B (~$16 per Watt)... Indefinite; >>30 years... ~9c per kW-hr." (PDF p.83-84).
Basis: USD, no stated price-year deflator (2012 report), per kWh and per kg to orbit; explicitly TRL-3 validated only
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0188
CLM-0188, Energy Aperture, as of 2012-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-027
- CLM-1218SPS-ALPHA's design catches sunlight with a few thousand units of large, thin plastic-film mirrors. The mirrors are grouped into several...CLM-1219 (low confidence)SPS-ALPHA's mirrors concentrate sunlight about three times on the array. The report estimates that five times would save almost 15,000...CLM-1220The receiving site sends a guide signal up to the satellite, and the satellite's many small transmitters use it to line up their beams on...CLM-1321The 2012 design study for SPS-ALPHA put the weight of its 2 gigawatt satellite at about 35,000 tonnes, about half of it in the transmitter.