Value chain · CLM-1469
In plain terms
In the Royal Society's model of a British power system run on wind and sun in 2050, electricity fed into the grid costs about 1.7 to 2 times what the wind and solar power itself costs. At the cheap end, the electricity costs about 1.7 times what the wind and solar power itself costs. At the expensive end it costs about twice as much.
The claim as recorded
In the Royal Society's 2050 Great Britain case of wind and solar supply backed by hydrogen storage, the average cost of electricity fed into the grid is about 1.7 times the wind and solar supply cost at the low end of its range (GBP 52 against GBP 30 per MWh, with a 5% discount rate) and about 2.0 times at the high end (GBP 92 against GBP 45 per MWh, with a 10% discount rate), in 2021 prices (our arithmetic).
Evidence behind this: T3: the ratio is our arithmetic on two figures printed together on one page of a Royal Society policy report (CALC-143).
Scope and limits
The two figures in each ratio are on different bases: the supply cost is per MWh of wind and solar output before transmission, and the average cost is per MWh fed into the grid to meet demand. So the extra cost is not storage alone. It also covers surplus wind and solar output (supply about 1.33 times demand at the cost minimum, CLM-1419), storage losses, and transmission to stores and grid-service batteries. Each end changes storage cost, supply cost and discount rate together, and the ratios hold only for those pairs. Great Britain, 2050, one modelled case, not a forecast; not a delivered or retail cost (CLM-1419).
What it assumes
As CLM-1419: 570 TWh a year of demand, an 80/20 wind and solar mix, hydrogen storage with 20% contingency, 15 GW of 1-hour batteries, GBP 4/MWh for transmission to stores and grid-service batteries.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
CALC-143: 52 / 30 = 1.73 and 92 / 45 = 2.04. SRC-781 PDF p.7, read at a zoom 4 crop: the low end, GBP 52/MWh, has low storage costs and "wind plus solar power (£30/MWh) and a 5% discount rate"; the high end, GBP 92/MWh, has high storage costs and "wind plus solar power (£45/MWh) and a 10% discount rate".
Basis: dimensionless ratio of two GBP per MWh figures in 2021 prices as printed; the numerator is per MWh fed into the grid, the denominator per MWh of wind and solar output.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1469
CLM-1469, Energy Aperture, as of 2023-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-781
- CLM-1419The Royal Society worked out that a British power system running only on wind and sun, with stored hydrogen to cover calm and dark spells...CLM-1420In the Royal Society's model, only about 15 per cent of Britain's electricity in 2050 comes out of storage, so the price of storage moves...CLM-1488A Royal Society report on storing electricity in Britain, drawing on the Met Office, says a spell of very low winter wind lasting up to a...
- Cited in articles