Value chain · CLM-1419
In plain terms
The Royal Society worked out that a British power system running only on wind and sun, with stored hydrogen to cover calm and dark spells, could supply electricity in 2050 at an average of 52 to 92 pounds per megawatt-hour in 2021 money. Most of that cost is the wind and solar power itself.
The claim as recorded
The Royal Society modelled a Great Britain electricity system in 2050 in which all demand is met by wind and solar power backed by hydrogen storage, with 15 GW of batteries kept for grid stability, and put the average cost of electricity fed into the grid at GBP 52/MWh to GBP 92/MWh in 2021 prices. The low end combines low storage costs, wind-plus-solar supply at GBP 30/MWh and a 5% discount rate; the high end combines high storage costs, supply at GBP 45/MWh and a 10% discount rate.
Evidence behind this: T3: a Royal Society policy report with a named report leader (p.92) and its costing method set out in chapter 8; it is not a peer-reviewed journal article.
Scope and limits
Great Britain, 2050 only, and a modelled case, not a forecast. The figure is a whole-system average per MWh of demand met (electricity fed into the grid), not per MWh of wind or solar output, and the page gives no separate firming or storage adder. Supply is wind, solar, hydrogen storage and batteries only: the modelling leaves out waste and biomass burning, hydropower, interconnectors, and the locations of supply, storage and demand and their effect on the grid (p.7); nuclear and gas with carbon capture appear only in separate variants (nuclear: Figure 25, p.65; gas with carbon capture: section 8.5, p.70; both summarised on p.80). The costing adds only transmission from wind and solar farms to stores and the grid-service batteries to the supply and storage costs (p.60); the wind and solar input is costed before transmission to consumers (Table 5), and distribution networks are not listed, so this is not a delivered or retail cost. Wind and solar costs are 2040 projections applied to 2050. The report says its estimates are sensitive to commodity prices and other inflation and depend critically on future wind and solar costs (p.8). Figure 24 labels the GBP 45/MWh case "BEIS: Low" where Table 5 calls it the BEIS high 2040 projection. Price year 2021, so it is not comparable with figures in other price years without restatement. Not additive with, and not on the same basis as, CLM-1421 to CLM-1428, which use other years, prices and denominators.
What it assumes
2050 demand of 570 TWh a year (AFRY model); supply 80% wind (30% onshore, 70% offshore) and 20% solar, at GBP 30.2, 35 or 45 per MWh before transmission (IEA and BEIS 2040 projections); hydrogen store, electrolysers and generators at low, base and high capex (Table 5), opex 1.5% of capex a year, 30-year financial life; electrolyser efficiency 74%, hydrogen to power 55%, round trip 40.7%; 20% contingency on store size; 100 GW of generating capacity; GBP 4/MWh in total for transmission from wind and solar farms to stores (taken as GBP 3/MWh) and 15 GW of 1-hour batteries (GBP 0.64 to 0.83/MWh) (p.60); weather of the 37 years 1980 to 2016; at the cost minimum, wind and solar supply about 1.33 times demand (p.31); exchange rate GBP 1.00 = USD 1.35 = EUR 1.18 (p.8).
Where it comes from
p.7 (PDF p.7, read at a zoom 4 render): for the case in which all demand is met by wind and solar with hydrogen storage plus 15 GW of batteries, the average cost of electricity fed into the grid, "In 2021 prices it ranges from:" GBP 52/MWh with the low assumptions for storage and for wind plus solar power "(£30/MWh) and a 5% discount rate; to" GBP 92/MWh with the high assumptions "(£45/MWh) and a 10% discount rate." (paraphrase between the quotes); "The overall average cost is dominated by the cost of the wind and solar supply." SRC-781 p.80: "between £52/MWh and £92/MWh in 2021 prices". SRC-781 p.62, Table 5 (zoom 4 render): wind and solar for an 80/20 mix at "£30.2/MWh (IEA 2040 projection adapted for UK load factors), £35/MWh (BEIS low 2040 projection) or £45/MWh (BEIS high 2040 projection)"; "Modelling uses the AFRY model of 570 TWh 2050 electricity demand". SRC-781 p.64, Figure 24 caption (zoom 4 render): "20% contingency is included in the store size." and "£4/MWh is included for the estimated cost transmitting power from wind and solar farms to stores and providing 15 GW of 1-hour batteries to maintain grid stability."
Basis: GBP per MWh of electricity fed into the grid; "2021 prices" as printed (p.7, p.8, p.64); the report does not label its figures or its 5% and 10% discount rates real or nominal.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1419
CLM-1419, Energy Aperture, as of 2023-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-781
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- Cited in articles