Value chain · CLM-1435
In plain terms
In NASA's design, rebuilt in 2024 money, cutting the launch price to a tenth while keeping everything else the same lowers the cost from about 930 to about 340 pounds per megawatt-hour. That is still about three times the top of the Royal Society's modelled 2050 cost range (about 61 to 107 pounds per megawatt-hour) for a British grid built on wind, sun and stored hydrogen. The UK government's study, for a mature fifth-built satellite, gives about 25 and 67 pounds per megawatt-hour for its low and high launch costs. The two sides are costed differently, so this is a rough guide, not a like-for-like price comparison.
The claim as recorded
In NASA's mirror design as rebuilt at a 20-year life and 10 per cent real, changing only the launch price across the range NASA itself tested, USD 10 million to 100 million a launch (about GBP 926 to 9,262 per kg delivered to geostationary orbit, in 2024 pounds), moves the cost from GBP 340.3 to 930.3 per MWh, 3.17 to 8.66 times the GBP 107.4 top of the Royal Society's 2050 range, in 2024 pounds, for a Great Britain system run on wind, solar and hydrogen storage. Frazer-Nash's published low and high spacelift-cost cases for BEIS (GBP 358 and 2,410 per kg in 2018 prices, about GBP 453 and 3,051 in 2024 pounds) restate to median values of GBP 24.7 and 67.4 per MWh for its fifth unit.
Evidence behind this: T0: a one-input sweep and a restatement computed for QST-021 from published records and a rebuild of NASA's mirror design checked against NASA's published totals (CALC-135); not a figure any source publishes.
Scope and limits
A sweep of one input in a rebuild of NASA's study, not NASA's published numbers (CLM-0390). At its own 3 per cent and 30 years, NASA gives about 0.4 and 0.2 US dollars per kWh for its mirror design at USD 50 million and 10 million a launch (CALC-135), and finds that no single change makes its designs competitive (CLM-0124). The sweep covers only the range of launch prices NASA tested, USD 10 million to 100 million a launch. NASA ran only USD 100 million, 50 million and 10 million, and the other points, in steps of USD 5 million, are our choice (CALC-135). NASA does not publish a price per kg to geostationary orbit, so it is worked out here from NASA's price per launch (CLM-0528), while Frazer-Nash states its rate as a price per kg to geostationary orbit. The two reach that orbit by different routes (CLM-0531), and Frazer-Nash does not say how its final climb by on-board electric thrusters is costed (CALC-135). The Frazer-Nash figures use a shortcut restatement that carries about plus or minus 25 to 30 per cent (CALC-061). Its two cases are read as fifth-unit cases from a caption, and its central case samples a range of launch prices, so it has no single price (CALC-135). The multiples set a plant's cost per unit against the cost per unit of demand met by a whole modelled system in 2050. They are indicative, not a like-for-like price comparison, and count no backup, eclipse, maintenance or grid cost for space solar (CLM-1430). NASA's disposal cost lump (USD 24.7 billion) stays fixed. It includes debris-removal launches priced at USD 100 million each (USD 1.5 billion), which are not rescaled, so the cheaper NASA points are high by an amount that was not computed (CALC-135).
What it assumes
Every NASA input other than the launch price is held at the CALC-062 rebuild. NASA's price per kg is derived as in CLM-0528 (the price per launch less a 15 per cent block discount, 13 launches per 100 t to geostationary orbit). The Frazer-Nash cases are restated by the shortcut used in CALC-063.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
CALC-135, working and result. CALC-062: NASA's mirror design at USD 100 million a launch, GBP 930.3/MWh. NASA's one-change launch cases of USD 50 million and 10 million a launch, from its report, printed p.73 (PDF p.90), as quoted in CALC-135. NASA's 0.4 and 0.2 US dollars per kWh for those cases, from its Table 26, printed p.76 (PDF p.93), as quoted in CALC-135. CLM-0170: Frazer-Nash's spacelift-cost cases. CALC-133: the Royal Society range, GBP 60.7 to 107.4 per MWh in 2024 pounds.
Basis: GBP2024 per MWh at a 20-year life and 10 per cent real (CALC-062, CALC-063); NASA's launch prices in FY2022 US dollars per launch, restated as GBP2024 per kg delivered to geostationary orbit (CALC-135).
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1435
CLM-1435, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-10.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Cited in articles