CLM-0390 - Energy Aperture

In plain terms

Putting all the cost estimates on the same footing does not make them agree. The disagreement is real, not an accounting artefact.

The claim as recorded

Restating every institutional space solar power cost estimate onto a common footing of 2024 GBP per MWh, a 20-year asset life and a single real discount rate does NOT shrink the disagreement between them: the gap between the UK estimate (Frazer-Nash for BEIS) and the rebuilt NASA estimates remains 19 to 37 times, essentially unchanged from the roughly 20 times seen before restatement, and it widens against NASA's larger design.

T0 own calculation · medium confidence · as of 2026-09 · VER-1624 CONFIRMED 2026-10-01 (also VER-220 CONFIRMED 2026-09-03) · XC02

Scope and limits

FX rates and price deflators were recalled from general knowledge rather than fetched, because the search budget was exhausted. That is recorded in CLM-0376 and does not change the conclusion, because the residual is a multiple rather than a percentage and single-digit FX error cannot close a 19-fold gap. The Roland Berger and OHB estimate could NOT be rescaled for discount rate or asset life at all, because the source states neither. The NASA figures are a rebuild of that study computed here, not the study's published numbers restated.

What it assumes

that the CASSIOPeiA and RD1/RD2 architectures are close enough to compare, which is the weakest assumption and is not independently quantifiable

Where it comes from

This is the project's own working, shown in full:

CALC-060 Currency and basis-year conversion: the deflators and exchange rates the whole restatement...

CALC-061 The CRF rescaling method, and the two real data points it was checked against

CALC-062 NASA OTPS RD1 and RD2 rebuilt bottom-up at the common 20-year basis

CALC-063 Every other institutional estimate restated by the CRF shortcut

CALC-064 The two summary ranges, and why they are not the same measurement

CALC-065 Discount rate as a mechanical lever, and the direction it runs

CALC-066 First-of-a-kind against nth-of-a-kind, across two independent studies

CALC-067 Launch cost per kilogram to GEO, the largest real driver in the corpus

Restated at 3 per cent real, 2024 GBP per MWh, 20-year life: Frazer-Nash for BEIS FOAK 28.1; Frazer-Nash for ESA FOAK 32.4 to 63.0 across p10 to p90; Roland Berger and OHB FOAK 63.1 on a currency-only conversion; NASA RD1 rebuilt 564.0; NASA RD2 rebuilt 921.7; Caltech middle tier 48.4. At 10 per cent real the same ordering holds: 49.1, 56.6 to 110.1, 930.3, 1791.1 and 84.6 respectively.

Basis: 2024 GBP per MWh, 20-year asset life, at both 3 and 10 per cent real discount rates

Related records

Answers question: QST-004 not published in this release
Supersedes: CLM-0360 not published in this release

Cite this

energyaperture.com/c/clm-0390

CLM-0390, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.