Value chain · CLM-1426
In plain terms
The UK government estimated in 2020 that a wind or solar farm opening in 2030 brings wider grid costs, compared with a nuclear plant, of between about minus 5 and 17 pounds per megawatt-hour of its output, plus up to 13 pounds for transmission lines, depending on the farm type and on how the rest of the system is built. The figure grows for offshore wind built later.
The claim as recorded
BEIS estimated, for plants commissioning in 2030 across six high-decarbonisation scenarios, a wider system impact relative to nuclear (wholesale market, capacity market, balancing and ancillary services) of GBP 7 to 17/MWh for offshore wind, GBP -5 to 7/MWh for onshore wind and GBP 8 to 15/MWh for large-scale solar, plus transmission network impacts of 5 to 13, 6 to 10 and 0. With other impacts added, enhanced levelised costs were GBP 62 to 82/MWh for offshore wind (original levelised cost 45), 59 to 87 for onshore wind (42) and 48 to 66 for large-scale solar (37). The offshore wind impact rises with commissioning year: 1 to 10 in 2025, 7 to 17 in 2030 and 12 to 22 in 2035.
Evidence behind this: T3: a UK government department's cost report with a published method (Section 7 and its 2017 framework).
Scope and limits
Marginal: the impact of a hypothetical small increment of each technology in each scenario, not the cost of a whole system (CLM-1427). Relative to nuclear, so not an absolute firming cost. Per MWh of the added plant's own discounted output. Distribution networks excluded; balancing covers only the Balancing Mechanism, reserve for frequency response and inertia (p.42, footnote 27); transmission depends on assumed plant locations (p.43). Column C (other impacts) adds unpriced carbon and lower-than-maximum load factors, so the enhanced levelised cost is not a pure system cost; the original levelised cost (A) is not the report's headline LCOE because balancing charges are stripped out. The geography is that of the BEIS model; Section 7 names only the UK net zero commitment. Price base 2018 real by the report-wide statement. Not additive with, and not on the same basis as, CLM-1419 to CLM-1425 or CLM-1428.
What it assumes
Six scenarios: three generation mixes (higher renewables, higher nuclear, balanced), each with two demand projections, all consistent with net zero by 2050 (p.43, footnote 28); impacts modelled in the BEIS Dynamic Dispatch Model from 2010 to 2050 and discounted (p.42); levelised costs at maximum load factor with balancing charges stripped out (p.44); levelised costs use technology-specific hurdle rates (p.5).
Where it comes from
p.46 (PDF p.48), Table 7.2 read at a zoom 4 render: "Table 7.2: Enhanced levelised cost ranges for plants commissioning in 2030 across six low-carbon generation scenarios, £/MWh"; columns (A) Original Levelised Cost, (B) Wider System Impact (excl. transmission network and other impacts), (C) Other Impacts, (D) Transmission Network Impacts, (A+B+C+D) Enhanced Levelised Cost; Onshore Wind 42, -5 to 7, 6 to 28, 6 to 10, 59 to 87; Large-Scale Solar 37, 8 to 15, 1 to 16, 0, 48 to 66; Offshore Wind 45, 7 to 17, 1 to 10, 5 to 13, 62 to 82. SRC-784 p.45 (PDF p.47), Table 7.1, 2025, column B (zoom 4 render): onshore wind -8 to 3, large-scale solar 6 to 13, offshore wind 1 to 10. SRC-784 p.46 (PDF p.48), Table 7.3, 2035, column B (zoom 4 render): onshore wind 1 to 14, large-scale solar 8 to 19, offshore wind 12 to 22. SRC-784 p.5 (PDF p.7, render): "All estimates are in 2018 real values unless otherwise stated." SRC-784 p.43 (PDF p.45): wider system impacts are "presented relative to the wider system impacts of a nuclear plant." SRC-784 p.44 (PDF p.46): "Intermittent technologies (e.g. wind and solar) generally impose a wider system cost, which is more severe in scenarios with lower flexibility or a less diverse generation mix."
Basis: GBP per MWh of the plant's own discounted output; report-wide "2018 real values" (p.5); the Section 7 tables carry no price-year label of their own; wider system impacts relative to a nuclear plant.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1426
CLM-1426, Energy Aperture, as of 2020-08.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.