Value chain · CLM-1425
In plain terms
The UK's climate advisers estimated that a nearly carbon-free power system in 2050 would cost about 4 billion pounds a year more than one built on gas, and that the cost of coping with changeable wind and sun is under a tenth of the total.
The claim as recorded
The Committee on Climate Change estimated for its 2050 Further Ambition scenario that building and running a very low-carbon UK power system, to today's security standard, would cost about GBP 4 billion a year more than a high-carbon system based on unabated gas (around GBP 46 billion a year), and stated that system intermittency costs make up less than 10% of overall system costs, with back-up and reserve capacity at 7% of the scenario costs.
Evidence behind this: T3: a technical annex by the UK statutory climate adviser, reporting the Committee's own 2050 scenario costs.
Scope and limits
UK, 2050, the Committee's scenario modelling, which sits in its Net Zero technical report (not held). The billion-per-year figures are totals, not per MWh, and no price year is printed. The 7% covers all back-up and reserve in the scenario, only part of which the Committee ties to renewables (p.15). Without the assumed flexibility, wasted generation could add GBP 1.5-4/MWh (p.16). Not additive with, and not on the same basis as, CLM-1419 to CLM-1424 or CLM-1426 to CLM-1428.
What it assumes
The Further Ambition scenario: 57% variable renewables, 38% firm low-carbon power and 5% decarbonised gas in 2050 (p.2); exports and flexibility reduce curtailment (p.16).
Where it comes from
p.15 (PDF p.15): a high-carbon system based on unabated gas in the Further Ambition scenario in 2050 "would be around £46 billion/year"; a very low-carbon system meeting today's security standards "would cost £4 billion more per year"; "system intermittency costs make up a small percentage of overall system costs (less than 10%)"; "The costs of building and running back-up and reserve capacity are 7% of the scenario costs." SRC-783 p.15 (paraphrase): only some of those back-up and reserve costs would be directly associated with renewables. SRC-783 p.16 (paraphrase): integration costs are likely to be a small proportion of overall system costs, less than 10%.
Basis: GBP billion per year and per cent of scenario costs, UK, 2050; price year not stated; real or nominal not stated.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1425
CLM-1425, Energy Aperture, as of 2019-05.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-783
- CLM-1423The UK's climate advisers said in 2019 that fitting large amounts of wind and solar power into the grid adds roughly 10 to 25 pounds to...CLM-1424The UK's climate advisers broke the extra cost of wind and solar into parts: backup power for peak demand, wasted output and keeping spare...