Value chain · CLM-1422
In plain terms
Imperial College found that the extra system cost of wind and solar in Britain in 2030 depends heavily on how flexible the grid is: about 40 to 48 pounds per megawatt-hour of their output with no new storage or demand response, but about 5 to 17 pounds once those are added. The figures are measured against nuclear power, not counted from zero.
The claim as recorded
Imperial College's Table E.1 gives 2030 GB system integration costs against nuclear, in real 2015 prices, that depend strongly on system flexibility: offshore wind GBP 48.4/MWh with no added flexibility (No Flex) against 11.2, 7.8, 5.5 and 5.5 in the Low Flex, Mid Flex, Modernisation and Mega Flex scenarios; onshore wind 40.2 against 10.2, 7.5, 7.3 and 7.2; solar PV 43.5 against 17.4, 14.4, 11.8 and 8.1. Added to assumed LCOEs of GBP 75 (offshore wind), 60 (onshore wind) and 65 (solar PV), the whole-system costs run from 123.4 down to 80.5, 100.2 down to 67.2 and 108.5 down to 73.1, against a nuclear LCOE of 90.
Evidence behind this: T4: a university model study run as a joint industry project with RWE Innogy, Renewable Energy Systems and ScottishPower Renewables (title page). Usable for method and ranges; not independent confirmation of the sponsors' case.
Scope and limits
GB, 2030, marginal and relative to nuclear; per MWh of the added plant's output. Whole-system cost here is the study's LCOE input plus its integration cost, so it moves one for one with the assumed LCOE, and those inputs rest mostly on DECC projections of December 2013 (p.6). No Flex is described by the authors as largely theoretical, a worst case (p.6, footnote 6). Sponsored by RWE Innogy, Renewable Energy Systems and ScottishPower Renewables. Real 2015 prices. Not additive with, and not on the same basis as, CLM-1419, CLM-1420 or CLM-1423 to CLM-1428.
What it assumes
As CLM-1421: a 1 GW nuclear-for-renewables swap at constant GB emissions of 100 g/kWh in 2030, flexible options held at each scenario's counterfactual level; LCOE inputs per Table E.1 (mostly DECC December 2013 projections, some updated, p.6).
Where it comes from
p.10 (PDF p.14), Table E.1 read at a zoom 4 render: "Table E.1. LCOE, SIC and whole-system costs of variable renewables and nuclear in 2030 (in £/MWh, real 2015 prices)"; values as in the claim; the Onshore capped and Nuclear centric columns give SIC of 8.1 and 7.5 (offshore wind), 7.2 and 7.1 (onshore wind) and 13.6 and 12.3 (solar PV), with nuclear LCOE 80 in Nuclear centric. SRC-782 p.11 (PDF p.15): moving from No Flex to High flexibility (or Mega Flex) "can reduce the SIC of offshore wind about 4 times in 2025 and 8 times in 2030." SRC-782 p.5-6 (PDF p.9-10): scenario definitions (paraphrase): Low Flex 5 GW new storage, 25% demand response uptake, 10 GW interconnection; Mid Flex 10 GW, 50%, 11.3 GW; Mega Flex 15 GW, 100%, 15 GW; No Flex no new storage, zero demand response, low interconnection.
Basis: GBP per MWh of the added technology's annual output; "real 2015 prices" as printed in the Table E.1 title (p.10); integration costs relative to nuclear.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-021 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1422
CLM-1422, Energy Aperture, as of 2016-10.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.