Value chain · CLM-0547
In plain terms
Building about 1.46 to 2 million identical satellite modules means the production line has to double its total output about 20 to 21 times over, starting from the first one built.
The claim as recorded
NASA OTPS's estimate of 1,463,000 (RD1) to 2,000,000 (RD2) spacecraft modules implies approximately 20.5 to 20.9 successive production doublings from a first unit (log2 of 1,463,000 and 2,000,000 respectively).
Scope and limits
A simple arithmetic derivation, not a new physical or economic finding; its value is in making the scale of the learning-curve claim concrete for Objection 3. DEPENDENCY MOVED HERE 2026-09-06 FROM CLM-0549, WHICH IS BEING WITHDRAWN. That record carried the only visible flag on this argument: if the crystalline-silicon PV learning rate of roughly 20-24 per cent per doubling is materially wrong, the "solar PV is the best comparable-rate precedent" leg of Objection 3 weakens correspondingly. The figure was recalled rather than sourced and has never been checked against a primary learning-curve study - NREL, IRENA or Fraunhofer ISE are where to look. The flag is recorded here so that withdrawing the claim does not delete the warning, which would have left a live argument resting on an unchecked number with nothing on the record saying so.
What it assumes
"Doublings from a first unit" is the correct framing for applying a learning-curve rate to this volume, consistent with how the source applies its Crawford learning-curve formula, unit by unit from the first unit produced (SRC-012 PDF p62-63, printed p45-46, "units_produced = list(range(1,6000001))").
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Module counts: SRC-012 PDF p61 (printed p44), "Estimated number of modules 1,463,000.00 2,000,000.00", given as 1.46M and 2M in the source's summary table (PDF p28, printed p11). Arithmetic (ours): log2(1,463,000) = 20.48; log2(2,000,000) = 20.93.
Basis: dimensionless (production doublings)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-041 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0547
CLM-0547, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-012
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