Value chain · CLM-0468
In plain terms
In this model, free launch alone, with every other input unchanged, still leaves the electricity cost at about 0.10 dollars per kWh or more, because building and replacing the hardware itself costs too much.
The claim as recorded
No single lever tested in this model -- including launch cost driven to 0 USD/launch, a physical impossibility tested only to establish a floor -- brings RD1's LCOE below roughly 0.10-0.17 USD/kWh across a grid of hardware lifetime (10-30 yr) and module learning rate (0.65-0.75); a manufacturing-cost floor remains in every case.
Scope and limits
This is a floor under the stated baseline efficiency/capacity-factor/discount-rate assumptions; CORRECTED 2026-09-06 BY RUNNING THE MODEL RATHER THAN READING ITS OUTPUT. With free launch AND the whole companion package applied together (a different, combined case from the single-lever floor in the claim), Section 8 gives a floor of 0.0410 to 0.0641 USD/kWh across the full twelve-cell grid, with SEVEN of the twelve cells BELOW 0.05. The previous text here said 0.051 to 0.064, "ABOVE 0.05 and never below it", and that was wrong. The cause is a reporting artefact in the script, not an arithmetic error: section_breakeven() prints a floor ONLY for cells where the break-even search FAILS, so the five printed values are the five worst cells and the seven cheaper ones print a break-even launch cost instead. Reading the printed output therefore samples the failures and calls it the range. Re-derived here by importing the module and evaluating lcoe_only(clone_params(companion_package(life, lr), starship_cost=0.0)) over all twelve cells; the five printed values reproduce exactly as 0.0509 to 0.0641, which is how the artefact was confirmed rather than inferred. This correction runs in SBSP's FAVOUR, unlike most found in this register.
What it assumes
All other RD1 baseline parameters (efficiency, capacity factor, discount rate) held fixed while finding this floor.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Trace, Section 8: zero-launch-cost floor values, 0.0969 to 0.1722 $/kWh across the tested grid.
Basis: FY2022 USD, nominal; discount rate 3%; RD1
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
- Supersedes
- CLM-0411 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0468
CLM-0468, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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