Value chain · CLM-0408
In plain terms
If the hardware lasted the full 30-year mission without needing to be replaced twice, the electricity cost would fall by almost half, on its own.
The claim as recorded
Extending RD1's hardware lifetime from 10 to 30 years (eliminating both refurbishment cycles, reducing total production from 3 batches to 1) reduces this model's LCOE from 0.623 to 0.330 USD/kWh, a 47% reduction, without changing launch cost, learning rate, or any other input.
Scope and limits
Does not address whether a 30-year hardware lifetime for continuously-operating GEO power hardware, three times the report's own 10-year baseline assumption, is achievable; the report states today's GEO hardware baselines to 15 years (printed p.74), itself an ASSUMED-optimistic figure relative to SBSP's harsher duty cycle.
What it assumes
Hardware lifetime changes both maintenance launch count and the number of units fed into the manufacturing learning-curve formula, correctly propagated together (not two independent free parameters); module learning rate held fixed across this test.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Trace, Section 7: hardware lifetime rows, 10/15/20/30 yr -> 0.6231/0.4771/0.4570/0.3302 $/kWh.
Basis: FY2022 USD, nominal; discount rate 3%; RD1
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-038 not published in this release
- Supersedes
- CLM-0252 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0408
CLM-0408, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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