Value chain · CLM-0385
In plain terms
In order of how much they actually matter: what launch is assumed to cost matters most by far; the choice of investment-return rate matters a lot in isolation but works in the wrong direction to explain why the studies disagree; genuine differences in satellite design matter but cannot be measured precisely from what is available; the size of the satellite probably matters somewhat; building several units instead of one matters a little; and using different currencies and price-years barely matters at all.
The claim as recorded
Ranked most to least responsible for the observed disagreement among institutional SBSP LCOE estimates: (1) launch cost per kilogram and its vintage/observed-versus-projected status (CLM-0382); (2) discount rate, but only as an amplifier that runs in the direction which deepens rather than resolves the disagreement (CLM-0380); (3) genuine architecture/scope difference, not independently quantifiable from held evidence; (4) system size, plausible but unquantified (CLM-0383); (5) FOAK versus NOAK, real but an order of magnitude too small (CLM-0381); (6) currency and basis year, smallest identified driver (CLM-0376).
Evidence behind this: T0-ANALYSIS, so no CALC is owed: this record DERIVES NO NUMBER. It is an ordinal ranking of six drivers, most to least responsible. Characterisation taken from synthesis/calcs.md's own disposition table, which sorted these records and recorded that they carry no arithmetic of their own. Method, stated here so a reader can dispute it: the judgement is made over the claims and calculations named in src, and rests on no quantity this record computes.
Scope and limits
This ranking is qualitative/ordinal, not a quantified variance decomposition (no such decomposition was attempted or claimed) -- see CLM-0386 for the explicit statement of what remains unexplained after the top-ranked, quantifiable factors are accounted for.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
restate-lcoe.py trace, Section 7 in full; write-up Section 6.
Basis: dimensionless (ranking of drivers)
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0385
CLM-0385, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.