Value chain · CLM-0382
In plain terms
How much it will cost to get one kilogram of hardware into the right orbit is the single biggest unresolved disagreement in this whole comparison. NASA's assumption is actually higher than the UK and European studies' assumptions, even though NASA uses a far gentler investment-return rate that should have let it show a lower cost, not a higher one -- this is the specific mechanism behind why the studies do not agree even after every other adjustment. Separately, a 2025 US paper's more optimistic scenarios assume launch prices about ninety to two hundred times lower than NASA's, based on a 2020 company planning document rather than any price actually paid.
The claim as recorded
Assumed launch cost per kilogram delivered to GEO spans roughly two to three orders of magnitude across this corpus: NASA OTPS's near-term assumption of ~11,050 USD/kg (derived from $100M/launch, 15% block discount, 12:1 refuel ratio) is HIGHER than either Frazer-Nash study's assumed range (BEIS 2021, 2018 prices: GBP358-2,410/kg =~ USD478-3,217/kg; ESA 2022: EUR454-3,301/kg =~ USD478-3,478/kg, median tested EUR1,877/kg =~ USD1,978/kg), despite Frazer-Nash using a much harsher discount rate (20% vs NASA's 3%); Caltech's middle/asymptotic tiers assume ~128 and ~55 USD/kg (price year not stated in the paper, taken as about 2024), projected from a 2020 SpaceX planning document 10-20 years forward and never observed at any date.
Scope and limits
This is the single largest identified, real (non-mechanical) driver of disagreement in this corpus (see ranking, CLM-0389), and it is not further resolvable from the evidence held in the register -- no launch contract at SBSP-relevant scale and cadence has been transacted at any of these prices.
What it assumes
FX rates used to convert the 2018 and 2022 GBP/EUR ranges to USD-equivalent for comparison purposes only (2018: ~1.335 USD/GBP; 2022: as stated in CLM-0376) are illustrative for this comparison, not part of the formal restatement pipeline in Sections 1-3.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
restate-lcoe.py trace, Section 7(d).
Basis: mixed currencies, GEO-delivered USD/kg-equivalent, vintages as stated
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0382
CLM-0382, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Cited in articles