Value chain · CLM-0248
In plain terms
How fast the cost of building each solar-power-satellite module falls as more are made turns out to matter more to the final electricity price than the cost of getting them into orbit -- more than any other single thing tested in this model.
The claim as recorded
In this model's one-lever-at-a-time sensitivity sweep of RD1, module manufacturing learning rate is the single most leveraged parameter tested: worsening it from 0.75 to 0.85 (assuming manufacturing improves more slowly than baseline, not faster) moves LCOE from 0.623 to 1.065 USD/kWh, a larger swing than reducing launch cost per launch from 100M to 10M USD (0.623 to 0.217 USD/kWh).
Scope and limits
This is a sensitivity ranking within the range tested (0.65-0.85), not a probability-weighted risk assessment; no view is offered here on how likely a 0.75-vs-0.85 learning rate actually is in practice.
What it assumes
This effect is a consequence of the very large production run (about 4.4 million modules and servicers over the 30-year life across all designs); the learning-curve formula itself is the reverse-engineered one from CLM-0244.
Where it comes from
This is the project's own working, shown in full:
Trace, Section 7, ranking table: learning rate 0.85 -> |delta| 0.442; launch cost $10M -> |delta| 0.406.
Basis: FY2022 USD, nominal; discount rate 3%; RD1
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-004 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-0248
CLM-0248, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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