Value chain · CLM-1456
In plain terms
Japan's government roadmap for space solar power, written in 2006 and revised in 2016, as shown in a December 2024 report, planned a decision on a space demonstration around 2025, a demonstration satellite around 2030, and a commercial system around 2045 to 2050. All of these were plans, not achievements. The same report notes that its earlier record of up to 100 metres was 0.0003 percent of the 36,000 kilometres a real system would need (by our arithmetic, the 5 kilometres it planned to fly is about 0.014 percent), and gives its next step as a transmission from low Earth orbit, dated only as 2025, to be decided.
The claim as recorded
The METI roadmap for SSPS reproduced in a December 2024 Japan Space Systems report, captioned "Established on 2006 and Revised on 2016", runs a ground demonstration phase to about 2025 and an in-space demonstration phase from about 2025 to about 2047, with a "Decision of Space Dem" gate at about 2025, an in-space demonstration using micro or small satellites at about 2030, an "Evaluation plant model" at about 2035 to 2042, a "Feasibility" gate at about 2040 to 2045, and "Commercial SSPS" at about 2045 to 2050 - all PLANNED; the same report states the SSPS goal transmission distance as 36,000 km and marks its earlier 30-100 m vertical transmission record as "0.0003% of the GOAL" (the 5 km of the December 2024 flight, given on the same slide as the experiment's planned distance, is about 0.014%, our arithmetic), and gives the next step as "Demonstrate WPT demonstration from the LEO (2025TBD)".
Scope and limits
Every dated item here is PLANNED, and the roadmap being read is a 2016 revision of a 2006 document, reproduced in a 2024 deck - it is not a 2025 or 2026 restatement of Japanese government policy. A later plan is held: Japan's FY2025 space roadmap, decided on 2025-12-23, targets the launch of the SSPS demonstration satellite OHISAMA on a Kairos rocket in FY2026 (April 2026 to March 2027), a target it says may change (CLM-1249). Year positions for the chart boxes are read off a chart against its own axis ticks, which are not evenly spaced, and are approximate. The "2025TBD" LEO demonstration is undated by its own author, and nothing held as of 2026-10-15 shows that it, or OHISAMA, has flown. No budget figure for the Japanese programme was found, so no cost or funding-scale claim may be drawn from this row.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
The roadmap caption (p.4) and the next step (p.5) are quoted in the claim. "The GOAL of SSPS transmission distance ... 36,000km"; "The transmission distance ... about 5km (vertical)"; "0.0003% of the GOAL." (p.6; the callout points at the "30 - 100m (vertical)" record, read at the render; 0.1/36,000 = 0.00028% and 5/36,000 = 0.0139%, our arithmetic). On p.5 the aircraft flight, "(2024Winter)", is the step before the LEO demonstration.
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-006 not published in this releaseQST-019 not published in this release
- Supersedes
- CLM-0295 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1456
CLM-1456, Energy Aperture, as of 2024-12-12.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.