Value chain · CLM-1079
In plain terms
The one outside firm asked to audit the 1980 cost estimates found the ground-station civil works priced at a third to a fifth of what construction experience said, the solar cells three to thirty times too cheap, and the slip rings ten to twenty times, and said the whole thing assumed breakthroughs it could not count on.
The claim as recorded
The programme's independent engineering cost audit, presented in April 1980, concluded that "The costs projected are based on optimistic assessments of future technological and manufacturing capabilities when compared with cost generated on the basis of the current status of research and development, engineering demonstration, and production practices" and that "current technology does not allow for dramatic cost reductions and does not guarantee the anticipated step-function improvements - technology breakthroughs - needed to reach the desired goals"; its multipliers on the estimates (Rockwell/MSFC, Boeing/JSC, Reference) are rectenna construction 2x, 3x, 3x; graphite reinforced structures (a), (a), 100x; solar cells 30x, 3x, (c); slip rings 20x, 10x, 10x; electrical systems (b) "Insufficient technical and cost detail"; with rectenna civil costs "low by a factor of three to five times", graphite fibre at "$25/lb to very high - $1,000/lb", GaAs photovoltaics "extremely optimistic measured against existing technology", silicon needing "cost reductions of 20 times to meet the DOE goals for 1986, performance improvements of 40 percent, and production capability increases of 100 times", and "The costs using the DOE goal of $0.50/Wp gives SPS solar cell costs three times higher than those estimated"; the items reviewed are "somewhat greater than 50 percent of the capital costs" and space construction, transportation and orbital maintenance were "not appraised".
Evidence behind this: T3, the abstract of an independent engineering cost review with a rendered multiplier table, no dollar totals, and the full report not held.
Scope and limits
An abstract of a report not held; multipliers on "selected components", explicitly "a numerical guide to determine where further R&D and engineering should be expended", not a revised estimate; no dollar totals.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
PDF p.639 / printed 619, normalised: "Although the items selected for review constitute somewhat greater than 50 percent of the capital costs as estimated in the studies reviewed, there are major areas of technology and costs which were not appraised"; conclusion 1 as quoted. PDF p.640 / printed 620: conclusion 2 as quoted; "The optimisms characterizing the costs are not supported by current construction experience and overall are low by a factor of three to five times"; "Current costs for graphite fibers range from relatively modest $25/lb to very high - $1,000/lb"; "Costs for GaAs photovoltaics are extremely optimistic measured against existing technology. Breakthroughs are assumed"; the silicon sentences as quoted. PDF p.641 / printed 621, Table 1 "Estimated Range of Cost Multipliers", render read: rows as stated; "(a) See sections 1.3.2 and 3.2 for details, Satellite Power System Cost Review Study. (b) Insufficient technical and cost detail is currently available to develop this information ... (c) Not applicable."
Basis: multipliers on estimated cost by system; $/lb of graphite fibre; $/Wp of silicon
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-037 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1079
CLM-1079, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-04.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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