Value chain · CLM-1069
In plain terms
Each launch would put about ten tonnes of nitrogen dioxide into a cloud over the pad, enough to breach a one-hour air standard on a bad day but not on its own, and make a shower of rain about as acid as ordinary polluted rain; the programme's own papers disagreed whether that happened 375 or 500 times a year.
The claim as recorded
The programme's April 1980 launch-site air quality estimate: an HLLV ground cloud "will contain approximately 1.0 x 10^4 kg of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and 8.5 x 10^3 kg of nitric oxide (NO), with the peak cloud concentrations estimated at 0.50 and 0.64 ppmV", a total NOx "3 to 4 times larger than NOx concentrations measured in typical power plant plumes at distances on the order of 1 km from the stack"; ground-level NO2 near the cloud "on the order of 0.10 ppmV" against an anticipated one-hour standard "of about 0.25 ppmV", so "the launch by itself is unlikely to cause a violation of a 0.25 ppmV standard, but may be sufficient to cause a violation if ambient concentrations are already close"; rain through the cloud at pH "3.5" on unphysical assumptions, "4.0 - 5.5" realistically, "not considered excessively acidic"; the cloud from "1.08 x 10^11 cal/s of thermal energy together with 2.02 x 10^7 g/s of water" could "in some situations induce a saturated, wet convective cloud", with predicted liquid water "about 3 times that of the Titan cloud" and light precipitation "0.07 g/kg"; and the cumulative case of "nearly 500 launches per year" for fogs and haze, of which the page says "More studies are needed", where the same session's stratospheric paper uses "375 or more flights/year".
Evidence behind this: T3, model calculations of launch ground-cloud chemistry and weather effects, calibrated on two measured launches, in three conference abstracts.
Scope and limits
Model calculations against two measured launches; "Under more adverse meteorological conditions, the contribution of the ground cloud may be even higher and further work is required".
What it assumes
Cape Kennedy meteorology; a liquid-methane first stage with NOx from "a possible molecular nitrogen impurity in the fuel or liquid oxygen, or from entainment and heating of ambient air"; Atlas/Centaur and Titan III cloud measurements as the calibration.
Where it comes from
PDF p.465 / printed 444, normalised: the NO2, NO, ppmV and power-plant sentences as quoted; "The ground cloud consists of the exhaust emitted by the rocket during the first 15-25 seconds"; stabilises "between 0.7 and 3 km". PDF p.466 / printed 445: "ground-level NO2 concentrations in the vicinity of the cloud on the order of 0.10 ppmV may be produced following a launch"; the violation sentence; sigma "2200 meters" initially and "3220 meters after one hour", stabilisation "1300 m"; "A region in which the NO2 concentration is greater than 0.25 ppmV clearly exists and persists for approximately two hours"; pH sentences. PDF p.468 / printed 447: the thermal energy and water rates; "The maximum cloud liquid water content in the HLLV cloud was predicted to be about 3 times that of the Titan cloud"; "a light precipitation with a maximum rainwater of 0.07 g/kg was predicted". PDF p.467 / printed 446: "the cumulative effects of nearly 500 launches per year"; PDF p.469 / printed 448: "a potential exists for a cumulative effect. More studies are needed". PDF p.471 / printed 450: "launch frequency (375 or more flights/year)". PDF p.136 / printed 113 (Rote's overview): "the launches by themselves are not expected to exceed the expected standard".
Basis: kg of NO2 and NO per launch; ppmV; pH; launches per year
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-008 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1069
CLM-1069, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-04.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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