Value chain · CLM-1053
In plain terms
The programme's 1980 climate study counted only what the rockets and power plants emitted in use, found the launch carbon small next to coal, flagged rocket water vapour in the stratosphere as the open question, and said the science was not good enough to decide anything on.
The claim as recorded
The programme's climate assessment counted "only operating emissions ... except for the SPS, which would involve emissions from heavy-lift launch vehicles", gave "3.67 x 10^3 t of CO2" per HLLV flight, "about 500 HLLV launches" for two 5 GWe satellites a year and so "1.835 x 10^2 t of CO2 per MWe of system capacity" one-off, against coal's "2.2 x 10^4 metric tons of CO2 per MWe" per year, ranked coal 3 ("very significant") and the SPS 1 ("minor") on CO2, the SPS's row in Table 3.4 otherwise at 1 or 0 except a 1-2 on stratospheric water vapour from launches and a 2 ("significant") on regional waste-heat release, its highest entry, gave waste heat per useful energy as 1.9 (coal), 2.0 (nuclear), 1.5 (terrestrial PV) and 0.25 (SPS) MWt-yr per MWe-yr, and concluded that coal "presents the greatest risk to potential global climate changes", that "the SPS does not appear to provide any major risks to the climate, although the impact of HLLV emissions on the stratosphere has not been adequately established", and that climate "in itself cannot currently be a criterion in decision making".
Evidence behind this: T3-the programme's climate volume: launch and coal CO2 figures taken from cited literature with the volume's own arithmetic, one figure of which does not reproduce from its own inputs.
Scope and limits
NO MANUFACTURING, MATERIALS OR FUEL-CYCLE EMISSIONS FOR ANY SYSTEM; NO CO2-EQUIVALENT; 1980 CLIMATE SCIENCE ("the current cooling trend of the earth is probably due to natural fluctuations"). The coal figure of 2.2 x 10^4 t/MWe-yr does not reproduce from the volume's own 98.6 kg per 10^9 J at 34 per cent (which gives 9.2 x 10^3 at full load) and is 3x the register's IPCC median (CLM-0854); do not carry it as a coal figure. Per kWh (arithmetic on the stated figures): the SPS launch-exhaust figure is 0.78 g CO2/kWh over 30 years at 90 per cent.
What it assumes
A CH4/LOX heavy lifter (ER-0055 Table C.4: 1,714 t CH4 per launch, which fully burned is 4,714 t CO2; the 3,670 t is 78 per cent of that).
Where it comes from
PDF p.8 normalised: "Only operating emissions were considered, except for the SPS, which would involve emissions from heavy-lift launch vehicles (HLLV)". PDF p.9 normalised, Table 1 image read: "MWt-yr /MWe-yr 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.25". PDF p.55 normalised: "A single HLLV flight will result in the emission of about 3.67 x 103 t of C02"; "about 500 HLLV launches"; raw: "1.835 x 102 t of C02 per MWe of system capacity"; normalised: "average annual emission of 2.2 x 104 metric tons of C02 per MWe of system capacity". PDF p.58 Table 3.4 read at the render (held under extract/derived/SRC-522). PDF p.59 normalised: "The SPS does not appear to provide any major risks to the climate ..."; PDF p.62 normalised: "coal technology presents the greatest risk ..."; "climate is a consideration in energy policy, but in itself cannot currently be a criterion in decision making".
Basis: operating emissions only, plus HLLV exhaust for the SPS
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-008 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1053
CLM-1053, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-01.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.