Value chain · CLM-1016
In plain terms
The 1980 programme expected heavy launches to change local weather in small ways, to produce a ground cloud like a dirty coal plant's for a short time, and to make thin high clouds, and it labelled nearly all of its own results tentative.
The claim as recorded
The DOE 1980 atmospheric assessment finds that HLLV launches "have been predicted to have a significant potential for inadvertent weather modifications on a local, short-term scale", able to "affect convective patterns, alter cloud populations, and induce detectable precipitation", none "judged to be serious" and long-term effects "unlikely, but ... not examined in detail"; that the HLLV ground cloud carries NOx 3-4 times a coal-plant plume and, at 0.05 per cent fuel sulphur, SO2 15-30 per cent of one; that the most probable upper-atmosphere climatic effect is "local formation of optically thin noctilucent clouds at altitudes of about 80 km" with "a permanent, global-scale cloud" not expected; and that "with few exceptions, the results should be regarded as tentative".
Evidence behind this: T3-programme atmospheric assessment, judgements without a stated criterion.
Scope and limits
The ground-cloud comparison is by analogy from Atlas/Centaur measurements (SRC-535 p.40 / 30), not HLLV data. "Significant potential" and "not serious" are the source's judgements without a stated criterion.
What it assumes
No assumptions are recorded against this claim.
Where it comes from
p.106 / 98, render read: "HLLV launches have been predicted to have a significant potential for inadvertent weather modifications on a short-term local scale. Under selected meteorological conditions such launches can affect convective patterns, alter cloud populations, and induce detectable precipitation. None of these effects are judged to be serious. Long-term, large-scale effects are unlikely, but have not been examined in detail ... with few exceptions, the results should be regarded as tentative." p.40 / 30: "the expected NOx concentrations in an HLLV cloud are 3-4 times higher than those prevalent in power plant plumes while a sulfur impurity of 0.05% leads to SO2 concentrations that are only 15-30% of those present in typical power-plant plumes." SRC-529 p.85 / 75: "The most probable effect would be the local formation of optically thin noctilucent clouds at altitudes of about 80 km ... Theoretical calculations indicate that a permanent, global-scale cloud would not form from multiple launches."
Basis: qualitative; ratios to a coal-plant plume
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-008 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1016
CLM-1016, Energy Aperture, as of 1980.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
- Also from SRC-086
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- Also from SRC-529
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- Also from SRC-535
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