Value chain · CLM-1015
In plain terms
The 1980 assessment expected each big orbit-transfer burn to punch a hole in the upper ionosphere the size of the continental United States, once or twice a month, with smaller daily holes from the launcher, and a permanent thinned ring around the launch latitude. It could not say what that would add up to.
The claim as recorded
The DOE 1980 summary states that rocket effluents "have been observed to reduce the F-region plasma density, producing ionospheric holes", that "Each POTV injection burn would create an ionospheric hole with an area the size of the continental United States", the HLLV circularisation burn "a hole one-tenth that size", with POTV burns "once or twice a month and the HLLV burns once or twice a day", that "a chronic low-level depletion would develop in a ring-shaped global region centered around the launch latitude", and that "A confident prediction of cumulative effects is not yet possible".
Evidence behind this: T3-programme summary of a detailed volume (SRC-531) held and unread.
Scope and limits
A summary of SRC-531 (DOE/ER-0082, Los Alamos), held and unread, which carries the model and the Skylab-1 and HEAO-C validation; no hole depth, duration or recovery time is given here. "Observed" refers to prior launches, not to SPS-scale traffic.
What it assumes
The 1978 Reference System's POTV and HLLV burn profiles and traffic model.
Where it comes from
p.86 / 76, render read: "Rocket effluents have been observed to reduce the F-region plasma density, producing ionospheric holes ... Each POTV injection burn would create an ionospheric hole with an area the size of the continental United States. The HLLV circularization burn would produce a hole one-tenth that size. The POTV burns would occur once or twice a month and the HLLV burns once or twice a day." "A confident prediction of cumulative effects is not yet possible; however, it has been estimated that a chronic low-level depletion would develop in a ring-shaped global region centered around the launch latitude."
Basis: area; events per month and per day
Related records
- Answers question
- QST-008 not published in this release
Cite this
energyaperture.com/c/clm-1015
CLM-1015, Energy Aperture, as of 1980-08.
Connected records
Other published records linked to this one. A list, not a judgement.
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- Also from SRC-529
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