Energy Aperture

Value chain · CLM-0525

In plain terms

If a gentler, arguably fairer investment-return rate is used instead of Frazer-Nash's tough 20%, its own cost figure gets even lower, not higher -- but this does nothing to close the huge gap with the US study, because the gap does not come from the discount rate.

The claim as recorded

Restating Frazer-Nash's own FOAK LCOE figures to a gentler 3-10% real discount rate (from its native 20%) lowers them further, to roughly GBP 28.1-110.1/MWh depending on study and percentile, still far below NASA's equivalently restated GBP 564.0-1,791.1/MWh; correcting for discount rate does not converge the two institutions and makes the divergence more visible, because the direction of the two institutions' native rate choices runs the wrong way to explain their gap.

Scope and limits

This finding is about the mechanics of discount-rate correction; it says nothing about whether Frazer-Nash's underlying mass and launch-cost assumptions are themselves realistic (Pillars 1 and 2).

What it assumes

No assumptions are recorded against this claim.

Where it comes from

This is the project's own working, shown in full:

CALC-062 NASA OTPS RD1 and RD2 rebuilt bottom-up at the common 20-year basis
CALC-063 Every other institutional estimate restated by the CRF shortcut
CALC-065 Discount rate as a mechanical lever, and the direction it runs
CALC-062 NASA OTPS RD1 and RD2 rebuilt bottom-up at the common 20-year basis
CALC-063 Every other institutional estimate restated by the CRF shortcut
CALC-065 Discount rate as a mechanical lever, and the direction it runs
Reproduced from CLM-0389 and the restatement table in this document's Pillar 4 section.

Basis: GBP2024, 20-year asset life, 3% and 10% real discount rate

Related records
Answers question
QST-004 not published in this release
QST-039 not published in this release

Cite this

energyaperture.com/c/clm-0525

CLM-0525, Energy Aperture, as of 2026-09.